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09-21-2017, 04:47 PM,
Bitcoin analysis for 21/09/2017


Bitcoin analysis for 21/09/2017:
Good news for all Australian cryptocurrency traders. Recently, the Australian government has introduced regulations to remove double taxation of cryptanalysts. The reform initially set in Turnbull's budget was approved. On September 14, a double taxation law was introduced. Scott Morrison Treasurer of the Commonwealth of Australia said: "Currently, consumers who use digital currency can effectively bear GST twice: once on the purchase of the digital currency and once again on its use in exchange for other goods and services subject to the GST". Since 14th of September, this situation is no longer applicable. The Bill will make it easier for new innovative digital currency businesses to operate in Australia, as the Government takes action to boost jobs and wages.
This is very good news for the cryptocurrency industry in Australia. At the same time, it could be a breakthrough for FinTech's future country policy. Previously, the Australian government had been regulating the exchange of cryptocurrency. In addition, Australian politicians and officials took over the leadership of FinTech by forming the Blockchain Parliamentary Group of Friends and chairing the 307 Technical Committee on the International Organization for Standardization (ISO).
Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bullish rally was capped around the level of $4,111 and currently the price is trading in a narrow zone between the levels of $,3793 - $, 4038. From the Elliott Wave Theory point of view, the rally from the low at the level of $2,958 has been developed in three waves so far that means this leg might still be a part of a wave B correction, not an impulsive wave progression towards a new high. Any violation of the level of $4,362 invalidates this scenario.
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09-21-2017, 04:49 PM,
Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 21, 2017


The Dollar index spiked yesterday after the FOMC. Price is testing weekly resistance levels at 92.50. So far we consider this upward bounce as a corrective play in a larger down trend.
resim
The Dollar index has broken out of the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. This is a bullish sign. The Dollar index is however diverging. So a pullback towards cloud support at 92.10-92 is justified. Bulls will then need to hold above support. Otherwise we will see this breakout as a fake one.
resim
On a weekly basis, the Dollar index is testing the weekly tenkan-sen resistance (red line indicator). Price remains in bearish trend. The rest of this week and the next will be very important for the medium-term move which the index will make. A rejection here will open the way for new lows below 90. Continuation of Dollar strength will open the way for a bigger bounce towards 96.
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09-22-2017, 12:28 PM,
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09-22-2017, 12:29 PM,
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09-22-2017, 12:31 PM,
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09-22-2017, 12:33 PM,
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09-22-2017, 12:39 PM,
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09-22-2017, 03:11 PM,
Daily analysis of USDX for September 22, 2017


USDX received a boost from the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged and by the hawkish tone of its statement. The 200 SMA on H1 chart remains as the dynamic support across the board and one could expect further gains to take place towards the resistance level of 93.09. To the downside, the nearest support is still located at the 91.67 level.
resim
H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04
H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.67, take profit is at 90.30 and stop loss is at 93.04.
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09-22-2017, 03:13 PM,
Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 22, 2017


GBP/USD has been trading sideways despite Fed's policy decision to keep its stance unchange. The pair is approaching the 200 SMA on H1 chart, where it could gather momentum in order to ride the bullish sequence towards the resistance level of 1.3755. Bollinger bands are tight, calling for a decisive move in the short term.
[Image: GBPUSDH1.png]
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3592 / 1.3755
H1 chart's support levels: 1.3309 / 1.3209
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3592, take profit is at 1.3755 and stop loss is at 1.3430.
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09-22-2017, 03:57 PM,
Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 22, 2017


The Dollar index despite making a new short-term high near 92.50, is pulling back as expected by our previous post towards the 92 cloud support. Is this a fake breakout like the last time or a back test that will provide a new bounce?
resim
Red line - resistance
The Dollar index has broken above the red trend line and is now back testing it. Price has also broken above the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) and is back testing it again. The last time price broke above the 4-hour Kumo we witnessed a false break out and a reversal. Will the bearish trend resume? There are high chances of this happening specially if price breaks below support at 91.60.
resim
On a daily basis, price remains in a bearish long-term channel. Price got rejected yesterday at the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) and is now trading below the tenkan-sen also. This is a bearish sign. The entire upward correction could be over already. Key support is at 91.50. Break it and we go below 90.
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09-22-2017, 03:58 PM,
Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 22, 2017


Gold price is showing reversal signs off the $1,290 area and the bottom of the bearish channel. As we were expecting Gold provided a new low below $1,300 and is now rising. Gold price could have already made an important low.
resim
Red lines - bearish channel
Blue line - expectation
Gold price is bouncing. Price however remains inside the bearish channel and below the kijun-sen and the Kumo (cloud). Resistance is at $1,303 and at $1,317. Breaking above $1,317 will increase dramatically the chances for a full scale reversal and a move towards $1,400.
resim
Magenta line - resistance
Blue line- long-term support
As we said a couple of months ago, Gold price would reach the resistance line at $1,350 and pull back for a correction before moving higher. This is exactly what is happening now and all we need to see now is a long tailed weekly candle. So this week's close could really signal something bullish for the next weeks. Gold is in a buying area as we mentioned in previous posts. We remain long-term bullish.
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09-22-2017, 03:59 PM,
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for September 22, 2017


USD/CHF has been residing inside the corrective structural range of 0.9440-0.9750 area for a few months. After a long dominating bearish trend, the pair has been currently very much volatile, making correction, so there is no sign of a directional bias. After the FOMC hawkish statement and unchanged funds rate, the price has been quite bullish in nature but yesterday bullish rejection has told a different story. Recently, Switzerland's Trade Balance report was published with a worse figure at 2.17B decreasing from the previous figure of 3.49B which was expected to be at least 2.41B. Despite the worse-than-expected report, CHF has been extending gains in the market against USD which does signal that CHF is still holding the power to dominate USD in the market. On the USD side, since FOMC decision on the funds rate USD has found support with the other economic reports as well like Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Today, USD Flash Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to show a slight increase to 52.9 from the previous figure of 52.8 and Flash Services PMI report is expected to decrease to 55.8 from the previous figure of 56.0. Though the economic reports from the US today is expected to have a minimal impact in the market against CHF, but better reports may hold CHF gains for a while. As for the current scenario, CHF is expected to have an upper hand over USD in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below the resistance level of 0.9750 which is expected to show more bearish pressure in the coming days. Yesterday, a good amount bullish rejection was encountered in the market after the FOMC bullish statement, which pushed the pair towards the resistance to break above it. As the price remains below the 0.9750 resistance level, it is expected to reach towards the structural support of 0.9440 support level in the coming days. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the 0.9750 with a daily close, then we will consider buy positions with a target towards 1.00.
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09-22-2017, 04:01 PM,
Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for September 21, 2017


NZD/USD has showed great amount of bullish rejection recently off the resistance level of 0.7370 with a daily close. After the hawkish FOMC Statement providing a hint about December rate hike, USD has spiked against NZD and this is expected to continue further in the coming days. Today, US Unemployment Claims report was better than expected decreasing to 259k from the previous figure of 282k which was expected to increase to 302k, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index report was published with an increase to 23.8 from the previous figure of 18.9 which was expected to decrease to 17.3, HPI report showed an increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1% but it was worse than expected value of 0.4%, CB Leading Index report showed an increase to 0.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, and Natural Gas Storage also showed an increase to 97B from the previous figure of 91B which was expected to be at 93B. On the other hand, New Zealand GDP report was published as expected at 0.8% increasing from the previous value of 0.6%, Visitor Arrival report showed less deficit at -0.3% from the previous value of -5.3%, and Credit Card Spending report showed a decrease to 6.4% from the previous value of 7.1%. To sum up, despite having positive economic reports NZD was unable to put pressure on USD throughout the day amid the FOMC policy decision. Besides, after the positive economic reports from the US the bearish pressure has become even stronger. As for the current scenario, further bearish pressure is expected to persist in this pair for the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has shown a great amount bearish pressure today after the recent bullish rejection off the 0.7370. Currently, the price is expected to proceed lower towards 0.7200 support level and later towards 0.7050 support level. As the price remains below the resistance level of 0.7370, the bearish pressure is set to continue further.
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