Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

06-01-2016, 06:07 PM,
Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 1, 2016
This week's primary event would be the conference of the ECB in the Eurozone. There are assumptions that the European regulator will leave its monetary policy unchanged.

The currency pair tried to regain on Tuesday. The resistance occurs at 1.1200 while the support stands at 1.1130.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI is in a neutral zone which does not provide clear signals.

06-01-2016, 06:23 PM,
Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: June 1, 2016
The pound managed to recover from its lows. Generally, the dollar stayed solid contrary to the pound as an aftermath of Janet Yellen's speech last Friday. The market hopes for new drivers for a further activity.

The resistance occurs at the level of 1.4560 while the support stands at 1.4480.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is near to the oversold zone.

06-02-2016, 06:55 PM,
Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: June 2, 2016

AUD/USD returned to bearish territory after the pair shot up on Tuesday’s session thanks to better than expected GDP for the first quarter of the year. It was just several pips short of breaching 73 cents yesterday, but is now trading at 0.7234.

Australia’s economy grew by 3.1 percent year-on-year, largely eclipsing a forecasted 2.8 percent growth. The same period last year experienced a 2.9 percent climb. In quarterly measures, GDP rose by 1.1 percent versus a 0.8 percent projected growth and 0.7 percent in 2015’s fourth quarter.

We are waiting for trade balance and retail sales due today to lift the Aussie dollar against the USD.

The US matched Australian data with mixed figures, but a probable rate hike later this month is keeping the USD afloat against most major currencies.

Personal spending in April increased 1.0 percent from March’s 0.1 percent growth. This beats the expected 0.7 percent rise. Core PCE Price Index for April remained at 1.6 percent in annualized term, aligned with analysts’ expectations. Consumer confidence in May was down to 92.6 points from previous reading’s 94.7 points. It was expected to read 1.0 to read 96 percent.

The first support is at 0.7065 and 0.6827 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7243 and 0.7331 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in positive location. We are not expecting the pair to reach 0.73 levels in the near term.

06-03-2016, 06:53 PM,
Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 3, 2016

The Euro breached the first support at 1.1174 after ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference yesterday was easily removed from the spotlight and replaced by incoming US labor data. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1156. NFP to be released later today is expected to provide downward pressure to the pair, along with a hawkish Yellen.

The ECB left interest rates at 0 percent. Draghi said that rates will remain low for a long time, but is positive that the Central Bank’s policies will pay off.

Eyes are now on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate on the US side, which are projected to be bullish. We are already seeing a firm US dollar, but the EU are still releasing rosy data at the time of writing.

The first support is at 1.1098 and 1.1025 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1220 and 1.1296 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is rising

06-22-2016, 08:06 PM,
Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: June 22, 2016

The British pound is holding its breath at 1.4683 for the release of the last set of polls leading to the EU referendum tomorrow. Recent surveys have been leaning towards remaining in the EU, gaining the GBP buying interest still evident today.

GBP/USD reached 1.4715 today but fell back to 1.46 cents due to the still-looming uncertainty. A neutral outlook is still in position until it sustains the 1.47 line. Its US counterpart is unlikely to firm due to a dovish Yellen and a fading interest hike in July.

The first support occurs at 1.4634 and 1.4590 while first resistance is at 1.4703 and 1.4766. The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is rising.

06-22-2016, 08:07 PM,
Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: June 22, 2016

EUR/USD was hit with profit-taking and a warning from ECB president Mario Draghi that another stimulus is on the way. The euro retreated to 1.12 cents after reaching 1.13 in the past days due to a firming ‘Bremain’ public sentiment. The pair is trading at 1.1272.

Draghi said that more stimulus is on the way as the ECB sees inflation rate missing the 2 percent target until 2018. Inflation is predicted to reach 1.3 percent in 2017 and 1.6 percent in 2018.

On the data front, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment for June was at 19.2, largely exceeding the predicted 4.7 increase. The country’s current conditions grew to 54.5 from 53.1 in May, while the Eurozone’s economic sentiment was up to 20.2, surpassing the 15.3 expected rate.

The USD is also taking a beating from Yellen’s statement that shows Fed’s worry over the labor market. The Fed chairwoman effectively reduced the possibility of a rate hike in its next monetary meeting in July.

EUR/USD is still on the bullish side but a drop below the immediate support of 1.1240 will move it to a neutral position, with the next support at 1.1213. The first resistance is at 1.1291 and 1.1350 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a positive location.

06-23-2016, 05:49 PM,
    Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: June 23, 2016
GBP broke through 1.48 in early European session, peaking at 1.4830 due to two polls that showed the Remain camp leading by several points. This is the sterling’s highest rate against the USD in 2016.

According to YouGov, the Remain camp gathered 51 percent of voters while the Brexit camp recorded 49 percent. ComRes, another major polling firm, revealed similar results with the Bremain leading by 6 percent at 48 percent while the Brexit side was at 42 percent. GBP/USD is now in a consolidating phase as traders remain cautious in the hours leading to the referendum.

In the US, traders are going short on the USD as they wait for the huge impact the referendum’s result could bring. It is understood that the result along with the outcome of Fed’s assessment on a soft labor market will largely affect the interest rate in July.

Dutch bank ING predicted that a Bremain will propel the GBP/USD to the 1.52 level while a Brexit will push it to as low as 1.30.

The first support occurs at 1.4700 and 1.4659 subsequently. The first resistance occurs at 1.4830 and 1.4897. The MACD indicator is in positive location.
06-30-2016, 06:04 PM,
Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 30, 2016

Followed by the Consumer Confidence report in the Eurozone, the euro currency has not made any alteration with its positions. Concurrently, the ECB will not whisk with the further monetary policy easing. There should be a proof that the economy of the Eurozone is declining before it implements any action.

Slowly, the euro managed to step up continuously. It is showed in the 4-hour chart that the instrument stayed in a downside channel and the euro increased to its upper boundary. The pair was likely to regain 0.47% and has made a new local high at 1.1130. The resistance occurs at 1.1130 while the support stands at 1.1000.

The MACD indicator was kept standing on a negative location while its histogram increased. The indicator will also give buy signals while its histogram increases. RSI indicator is in an impartial location and its growth from the oversold area is a buy signal.

The price is under the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which goes downwards indicating a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a sturdy resistance for the euro which it touched yesterday. The EUR/USD tries to revert into the ascending channel on the daily chart.

07-13-2016, 04:40 PM,
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 13, 2016
AUD/USD recorded its highest stock price on May 3. But today the pair obtained a lower rate after a growth surge that happened yesterday. The recent strength of the market's trend was remarked by the appetite for risk in the global economy.
The Aussie Dollar has improved since the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced interest rates and they are now regenerating all their losses during the post-Brexit.

The daily swing chart defined the pair's main trend as an uptrend and made it cut down the Brexit top that changed the .7645 into .7285 as the market bottom.
The main price range is .7834 to .7145. The retracement alert level is close above .7569 to .7487, this shows a chance of an upside strengthening.

The market movement occurred to an uptrending angle at .7665 by which it is close to the result of yesterday’s strength at .7622.

Meanwhile, AUD/USD may take a bullish or long position in certain securities due to a sustained market movement over .7665 and this would probably begin an upside momentum to rotate the downtrending angle at .7687.

Technically, it is difficult to deal with .7665 and coping with this real time exchange rate will signal the presence of more sellers than buyers. If the price continued a downward sloping average below .7539, it indicates weakness for the next target.

07-14-2016, 06:44 PM,
Fundamental Analysis EUR/USD: July 14, 2016
The EUR/USD pair was subject to pressure following the release of China’s latest trade balance data. The Euro went up by 0.0012 or roughly +0.11%, hitting 1.1084 from its low of 1.1042.
EUR traders can now breathe a sigh of relief after the trade balance data from China came out in their favor after the news release signalled a possible volatility. Exports came out at -4.8% after an estimate of -4.1%. On the other hand, imports came out at -8.4%, a long shot from its forecast of -5.0%. Meanwhile the dollar’s headline figure for June came out at $48.1 billion, about $2 billion lower than May’s headline figure, with economists gunning for a reading of $46.64 billion.
After US stock indices had an upward surge, Investors and traders are now back to monitoring global equity assets with the promise of higher risk assets, putting more confidence in the EUR/USD and aiding in its overall recovery.

07-14-2016, 06:45 PM,
Fundamental Analysis: July 14 2016
The Bank of Canada opted to maintain interest rates during their most recent closed-door meeting with the currency board and bank directors and eventually the rate of the Canadian Dollar moved higher yesterday. The USD/CAD keeps on pushing higher prices most of the trading session but the invested capital gains immediately fluctuate down to 1.2934 close to 1.2976, falling to 0.0064 or -0.49%. Since midsummer the BoC continued to retain its appropriate benchmark with a rate of 0.50%.
According to the central bank, the financial valuation of the BoC would likely have an economic growth, considering that it has increased by 2.4% during the first quarter of the year and is expected to decline by 1% by the second quarter. The assessment is inferred through the volatility of the capital flows, household consumption and the massive wildfire that ravage the Canada's region.
The central bank also anticipates the expansion of the Canada's economy by 1.3% up to 3.5% during the months of July to September. The BoC mentioned also their expectation of the price stability of oil prices for the rest of this year.
One of the problems emerged in Canada is the overall financial vulnerabilities as it resulted to a lower rates and experienced an adverse shock. Other news releases said that a 4% price fall in crude oil will restrain the weakening of the USD/CAD pair.

08-20-2016, 11:23 AM,
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 19, 2016

As presented over the 4-hour chart, the euro and dollar reached an indecision level since the US Dollar further weakened. The time frame of the currency pair maintained a higher point of movement thus heading on an accelerated trend lines.

The increase of EURUSD is pulled by the resistance level of euro whereby set at 1.1320, the support comes between the Eur 1.1207-Eur 1.1230.

The pair is predicted for probable decrease in distinction to EUR 1.1320. The procurement of a long investment position is suited on settling against the said level.

08-20-2016, 11:25 AM,
Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: August 19, 2016

The USD/CAD pair went down by 26 points as the USD further decreased its value, with both gold and oil experiencing an upsurge. The said pair is currently trading at 1.2819, with the CAD continuing its present positive value. The CAD temporarily went over the 78-cent level of the USD as the greenback fell in relation to a lot of currencies as oil prices continued to rise.

One of the reasons for the CAD’s recent gains is the sudden upsurge in oil futures, with per barrel amounting to more than $47. Another reason for the currency’s gain is the weakening of the US dollar after calls for the Federal Reserve to take extra caution when it comes to increasing its interest rates. The CAD has been steadily increasing its value during the last 7 trading sessions before the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee yesterday, which led to a decrease after the release of the meeting’s statement.

Investors are now expecting the release of the Canadian Consumer Price Index monthly report for its yearly and monthly data. Yearly data is expected to fall at 1.3% from last month’s 1.5%, while the monthly data is also expected to go down by -0.1% from last month’s 0.2%. Should the actual data fail to match the expected data release, then traders can expect volatility in prices as the market will try to adapt to the released financial information.

08-24-2016, 06:55 PM,
Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: August 24, 2016
The EUR/USD pair had little response to the positive composite PMI data, with the EUR trading up to 25 points before the data release and remained at 1.1345 near its highest range point as the USD continued to weaken. Manufacturing PMI data went below its expected range but went above the 50-divider line.

The economic status of the eurozone maintained its status in August, with its growth showing that it is unlikely to be cut back as a result of a possible fallout following the Brexit referendum. The composite PMI for the eurozone rose in July, from 53.2 to 53.3 points, going above the 50 level which separates expansion from contraction and is the best reading for the region in seven months. IHS Markit has stated that the eurozone’s economy remains on the steady side, with an estimated 0.3% GDP for this quarter, similar to the first half average of 2015.

Speculators are now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s chairwoman Janet Yellen’s statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium this coming Friday. Investors will be monitoring this symposium as this has been the platform used by the Fed to warn of either a tightening or a loosening of monetary policy.

08-25-2016, 06:26 PM,
Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: August 25, 2016
The USD/CAD pair went higher during Wednesday’s session, trading at 1.2942 after increasing by 0.0031 or +0.24%. This increase in the pair was due to speculations that Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will be delivering a possibly hawkish statement on Friday’s Jackson Hole Wyoming central bankers’ symposium. The CAD also weakened after a sudden build caused crude oil prices to go lower than 1.50%. This sharp sell-off occurred after an unexpected stockpile increase as stated by the US Energy Information Administration, causing renewed concerns about the surplus in international supply.

The government of Alberta, Canada raised its 2016-17 budget deficit forecast to C$10.9 billion last Tuesday, after the disastrous wildfire that ripped through the region caused damages in Fort McMurray’s oil sands hub.

If the USD continues to strengthen against the CAD and crude oil prices further decrease, then the daily pattern chart shows an upside shift in momentum. However, crude oil prices can also experience a sudden surge especially if Janet Yellen’s statement on Friday turns out to be dovish, or both OPEC and non-OPEC countries opt for a production freeze. Large payoffs are expected, however, if crude levels go lower than this month’s levels and if the Fed’s statement signals at least one rate hike before the year comes to a close.


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