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11-20-2017, 10:51 PM,
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THE WEEK AHEAD: ECB’S DRAGHI AND BOE’S CARNEY TESTIFY, U.S. PREPARES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY


EUR/USD



Weekly Analysis: Buying interest around the Euro increased last week and the pair moved above several types of resistance, finishing the week more than 100 pips higher than it started. 

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Technical Outlook

The bulls managed to break the confluence zone created by 1.1700 resistance, the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and the bearish trend line seen on the chart above. This shows that momentum is clearly on the Euro side, so we expect to see a touch of the resistance at 1.1875 early in the week. If the level can be surpassed, the next target will become the key level at 1.2000 but it could take more than a week for the bulls to cover the entire distance. A move below the confluence zone mentioned earlier would invalidate this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The week opens Monday with the double testimony of ECB President Draghi before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. This is likely an event that will generate increased volatility on Euro pairs, so caution is advised.

Tuesday the economic scene will be calm and Wednesday the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, containing details about the reasons that determined the rate vote. More importantly, if the document offers hints about future rate changes, then we will probably see strong USD movement.

Thursday U.S. banks will be closed in celebration of Thanksgiving Day and on the Euro side the Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be the most notable releases. The week finishes Friday with the German IFO Business Climate, which is a survey with a large sample size of about 7,000 businesses that are asked to rate current economic conditions and to offer a 6-month outlook.


GBP/USD

Price action was choppy, with a bullish bias last week and the pair didn’t manage to break out of the range. British data was mixed, with lower than expected CPI but better employment numbers.

resim

Technical Outlook

The 50 days Exponential Moving Average is flat and price is bouncing between 1.3050 support and 1.3250 resistance; also, the oscillators are moving without clear momentum and all this is indicative of a ranging market. The last daily candle shows a long wick in its upper part and this increases the probability of a bounce lower but overall trading will remain range-bound until a clear breakout occurs. The levels to watch are 1.3250 followed by 1.3320 as resistance and the lower part of the range is represented by 1.3050.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow economic week ahead, with only three notable events: Tuesday the Public Sector Net Borrowing comes out, showing differences in value between spending and income for government and public companies. The same day, Bank of England Governor Carney will testify before the Parliament's Treasury Committee on inflation and economic outlook

The last release of the week will be the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product scheduled Thursday. The GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance, however this version is not as important as the Preliminary, which was already released.
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11-27-2017, 09:10 PM, (This post was last modified: 12-04-2017, 04:15 PM by GDMFX.)
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO EXPLODES TO THE UPSIDE, CAPITALIZING ON A FRAIL US DOLLAR. KEY RESISTANCE EYED


EUR/USD



Weekly Analysis: Euro strength combined with US Dollar weakness across the board generated a bullish week and a break of key resistance. The pair has exited the consolidation phase but the long term uptrend has not yet resumed.

resim

Technical Outlook

After breaking the bearish trend line seen on the chart above, the pair consolidated between the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and 1.1875 resistance. Now the consolidation is over and we are dealing with a clear bullish breakout above 1.1875, meaning that the key level at 1.2000 is the pair’s first destination. This is a technical resistance as well as a psychological level (big, round number) and the Relative Strength Index is entering overbought, so we expect to see bounces lower if the pair reaches it.

Fundamental Outlook

The week opens relatively slow, with nothing major for the Euro for the first two days of the week. For the US Dollar the highlights will be the New Home Sales scheduled Monday and followed Tuesday by the Consumer Confidence survey. These releases are not known to have a huge impact but usually a higher number strengthens the currency.

Wednesday action picks up with the Preliminary version of the German Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and has a hefty impact on the shared currency because the German economy is the strongest in the Eurozone. Another important release is the Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product, which is the main gauge of overall economic performance and later the same day, Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on U.S. economic outlook.

Thursday the European Flash version of the Consumer Price Index will be released and the week ends Friday with the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey of purchasing managers that tries to gauge their optimism regarding economic conditions in the Manufacturing sector.


GBP/USD

Broad US Dollar selling was the main reason for last week’s continued climb. The pair has now moved into medium term resistance, which makes it susceptible to a bounce lower.

resim

Technical Outlook

For the last few weeks the pair has traded inside the range created by 1.3320 resistance and 1.3050 support. Currently it’s testing the upper boundary but the last two daily candles are small and with long wicks, showing that bullish momentum is fading, so we may see a bounce that could find support around 1.3250 or even at the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. On the other hand, a clear break of 1.3320 will increase the probability of a move into 1.3450.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Bank Stress Test Results will come out Tuesday, offering insights into the financial stability of 7 banks and building societies. The same day the Bank of England will release their Financial Stability Report, which assesses the potential risks for the financial system.

The last event of the week is scheduled Friday in the form of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which is a leading indicator of economic health and optimism among purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector.
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12-04-2017, 04:11 PM, (This post was last modified: 12-04-2017, 04:14 PM by GDMFX.)
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: NON-FARM PAYROLLS – THE LAST MAJOR EMPLOYMENT DATA OF THE YEAR


EUR/USD


The US Dollar showed modest gains in the beginning of last week but the pair then climbed on the back of U.S. political turmoil. Overall price action was choppy and characterized by reversals on the lower time frames.



resim



Technical Outlook


The pair is supported by a bullish trend line that will probably push price into the key resistance at 1.2000. On the other hand, if the bears manage to break this trend line, we will most likely see a drop into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average where the next direction will be decided. The pair’s behavior this week will be heavily influenced by the U.S. political scene and by the jobs data released later in the week.



Fundamental Outlook


The week starts off slow, without any major releases scheduled Monday, while Tuesday the only notable economic data will be the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI (also called Services PMI), which is a survey that shows the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the Services sector.



Wednesday action picks up and we take a first look at United States jobs situation, with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. The report shows the estimated change in the number of employed people in the U.S., apart from the farming sector and government. A larger number of employed people indicates that consumer spending is likely to pick up in the near future and this in turn strengthens the currency.



Thursday ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference in Frankfurt at the Bank of International Settlements and the economic week will end Friday with the most important U.S. employment data: the Non-Farm Payrolls. This report shows changes in the total number of employed people in the U.S., excluding the farming industry and has a very strong impact on the US Dollar. Higher numbers strengthen the currency because employment is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which in turn represents a hefty part of overall economic activity.



GBP/USD


Renewed optimism regarding Brexit negotiations took the pair above long term resistance (1.3450), reaching a weekly high at 1.3550. Some rejection was seen during the last day of the week but momentum is still on the buyers’ side.



resim



Technical Outlook


The bias is bullish but the pair is capped by last week’s high at 1.3550 and the Relative Strength Index is entering overbought territory, warning that a deeper retracement south may follow. If early in the week the bears can break 1.3450, we may see a move back into the 1.3320 zone but on the other hand, if 1.3450 becomes support, we will probably see a move into 1.3600 area.



Fundamental Outlook


The week is rather slow for the Pound, with only a few notable releases. The Construction PMI and Services PMI will come out Monday and Tuesday respectively, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in their sector.



The last announcement of the week is the Manufacturing Production scheduled Friday. This indicator shows changes in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector and has a positive impact on the Pound if it posts a higher than anticipated reading; the opposite is true for a lower reading. As always, the U.S. releases will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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12-11-2017, 05:09 PM,
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THREE INTEREST RATES – THREE REASONS FOR HUGE VOLATILITY

EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week belonged to the US Dollar that showed signs of recovery and took the pair into 1.1700 area. Most of the move was technical as the economic scene was slow and without market moving events.

resim

Technical Outlook

After the break of the bullish trend line seen on the chart above, price remained below 1.1875 and descended below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. Although last week closed below the 50 EMA, the last daily candle has a very long wick and a very small body, which is a sign of indecision, so the next direction is difficult to anticipate. For now the first support is located at 1.1700 and resistance sits at 1.1875; if price climbs above the 50 EMA, showing that the initial break was false, we expect a move into 1.1875.

Fundamental Outlook

The first notable releases of the week are scheduled Tuesday: the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (survey of about 300 German investors and analysts regarding economic conditions) and the U.S. Producer Price Index (shows changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services).

Wednesday will be the most important day of the week for the US Dollar as the Fed will announce their interest rate, which is expected to increase from <1.25% to <1.50%. A Rate Statement will come out at the same time, outlining the reasons that determined the rate decision and half an hour later, Fed Chair Yellen will hold a press conference, discussing the rate. Given that this is the final rate announcement of the year, we may see strong movement on the US Dollar.

Thursday it’s the ECB’s turn to announce the interest rate (no change expected) and soon after, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference during which he will answer unscripted questions from journalists. Also Thursday the U.S. Retail Sales will come out, so this will be another day with possibly high volatility. The week ends Friday without any notable releases.



GBP/USD

The Pound had a choppy week and was affected by Brexit talks that generated periods of irregular volatility and reversals on the lower time frames. The bias was bearish but the pair remained above support.

resim

Technical Outlook

After bouncing at 1.3320, the pair climbed above 1.3450 only to move back below it again, showing choppy price action. The technical aspect will be overshadowed by any news regarding Brexit negotiations but the levels to watch remain 1.3320 as support and 1.3550 as resistance (for now 1.3450 doesn’t seem too important). A break of 1.3320 and the 50 EMA will open the door for a move into 1.3050 but this could take more than a week.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a busier week than usual, starting with the Consumer Price Index, scheduled Tuesday. This is the main gauge of inflation and shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase.

Wednesday the Average Earnings Index comes out, showing changes in the price that employers pay for labor. The indicator has inflationary implications because usually if businesses pay more for labor they tend to increase the price of their products. If the actual change surpasses expectations, this usually strengthens the Pound.

Thursday the British Retail Sales will come out and the Bank of England will announce the rate decision, which creates volatility even if no change occurs. As always, the U.S. releases will have a strong impact on the pair so caution is recommended.
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12-18-2017, 05:29 PM,
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: PRICE ACTION BECOMES CHOPPIER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WINTER HOLIDAYS

EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week the Fed raised the interest rate from <1.25% to <1.50% as expected but Fed Chair Yellen was somewhat dovish during her press conference and this generated a jump higher on the back of US Dollar weakness. Most of the Euro gains were erased during the following days.

resim

Technical Outlook

The pair ended last week very close to the opening price and couldn’t break free from the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, which is almost flat, indicating a lack of momentum on both sides. Currently, price action is capped by two trend lines and the break of one of them will probably decide the next direction but until that happens the pair will probably show ranging price action. Horizontal support sits at 1.1700 and resistance is located at 1.1875; for a breakout to happen price needs to clear these zones as well.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the week will be the Eurozone Final version of the Consumer Price Index, scheduled Monday. This is an important gauge of inflation but the Final version tends to have the lowest impact. Tuesday the German IFO Business Climate will show the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about a 6-month outlook for the German economy and on the US Dollar side the only notable release will be the Building Permits, which shows how many construction permits were issued during the previous month.

Thursday the U.S. Final Gross Domestic Product will be released, showing changes in the total value of services and goods generated by the economy and the week ends Friday with the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, an indicator that shows changes in the value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. Overall it’s a rather slow week, mostly due to the approaching of the Winter Holidays.

GBP/USD

Last week the pair bounced between support and resistance, a behavior mostly generated by the fundamentals: first the US Dollar weakened during the Fed meeting and then it was the Pound’s turn to go down after more Brexit concerns emerged.

resim

Technical Outlook

After failing to break 1.3450, the pair dropped into the confluence zone created by the support at 1.3320 and the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. Momentum is on the sellers’ side but as long as the mentioned support zone is intact, the pair’s direction is uncertain. A break will likely trigger a stronger drop but the focus will remain on Brexit negotiations so the Pound will be prone to sudden moves.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow week ahead, with only a few notable releases. Wednesday BOE Governor Carney will speak before the Treasury Select Committee about the November Financial Stability Report. De pending on his attitude, the Pound may see increased volatility so caution is advised.

Thursday the Public Sector Net Borrowing comes out, showing the difference between spending and income for the Public Sector. A positive number shows deficit and a negative number shows surplus but the indicator is not a major market mover.

Friday the Current Account will be released, showing the value difference between imported and exported goods and the same day the Final version of the British GDP will come out. This is the main gauge of an economy’s performance but the Final version usually has a low impact on the currency.

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12-25-2017, 02:15 PM,
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: CHRISTMAS WEEK - THIN TRADING VOLUMES AND IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The pair had a bullish week and seemed to gain some traction but from a longer term perspective it is still trading inside a range, without a definite bias. Moreover, this ranging behavior is likely to continue throughout this week due to the Christmas Holidays.

resim

Technical Outlook

Price bounced at the bullish trend line seen on the chart above and continued higher, reaching the bearish trend line and the horizontal resistance around 1.1875. This means that although the bias was bullish last week, we are not dealing with a breakout and the pair is still range bound. Monday and Tuesday most markets will be closed due to Christmas and volatility will probably remain irregular for the better part of the week. Caution is recommended because price may show sudden spikes due to the low liquidity, so a technical prediction is difficult to make.

Fundamental Outlook

During the first two days of the week, European and U.S. banks will be closed in celebration of the Christmas Holiday, so volatility will be highly affected and most markets will be closed. The first release of the week is scheduled Wednesday: the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey; however, we don’t expect its impact to be high considering that liquidity will be still affected by the Winter Holidays.

Thursday will be another slow day, with the U.S. Unemployment Claims as the only notable event and the week ands Friday with a release that usually has a high impact: the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, which acts as the main gauge of inflation; however, its impact may be muted this time.

GBP/USD

After a strong climb that occurred at the beginning of last week, the pair showed choppy movement and retraced most of the gains. The macroeconomic environment was slow and contributed to the lack of directional movement.

resim

Technical Outlook

Price action is choppy and will probably remain so until January next year. For the short term we expect to see a touch of the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and the support around 1.3320 – 1.3300, where the next direction will be decided. A bounce or break in this zone can be followed by a move into the resistance at 1.3450 or the support at 1.3250 but trading volumes will be thin and may result in sudden spikes and erratic price movement.

Fundamental Outlook

For the first two days of the week UK banks will be closed due to Christmas and the rest of the week no important economic releases will take place. We expect choppy price action and irregular volatility.
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01-02-2018, 12:44 AM,
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: FIRST TRADING WEEK OF 2018 – US JOBS DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The US Dollar ended the year on a bearish note, weakening for the entire last week against the Euro. The pair finished 2017 right on the key resistance at 1.2000 but it is unclear yet if we are dealing with a true break.

resim


Technical Outlook

After breaking the bearish trend line seen on the Daily chart above, the pair continued higher and breached the important barrier at 1.2000. The short term momentum is bullish but price action will be affected by low volumes during the early days of the coming week and this means that we may see either another period of strong movement or tight ranges. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought and 1.2000 is a key level, so the probability of a bounce lower from here is high.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday is the first day of the New Year, so most banks across the globe will be closed and no economic data will come out. Tuesday is again a slow day, without major indicators and action finally picks up Wednesday with the U.S. Manufacturing PMI and the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which will offer details about the latest FOMC rate decision and reasons that determined it.

Thursday we take a first look at US employment data with the release of the ADP Non-farm Employment Change, which is a report that shows changes in the total number of employed people, apart from the farming sector and Government.

The last release of the week but the most important is scheduled Friday: the Non-Farm Payrolls, which is the main gauge of employment in the United States. The report shows changes in the total number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and usually has a high impact on the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was seen across the board last week and the pair finished the year very close to 1.3500, on a bullish note.

resim


Technical Outlook

For this week we expect choppy price action, with the pair trapped between 1.3450 support and 1.3550 resistance. Monday the market will come to a stop due to New Year’s Day but action will pick up later in the week when the U.S. employment data will come out. A break outside the range we’ve just mentioned will probably be determined by the economic data released throughout the week.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday British banks will be closed, celebrating New Year’s Day and the rest of the week will be relatively slow, with only three surveys of purchasing managers. Tuesday the Manufacturing PMI will be released, followed Wednesday by the Construction PMI and Thursday by the Services PMI. These surveys show the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sectors about business conditions in that sector but the impact is usually medium.

We wish you a Happy New Year!

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01-08-2018, 04:06 PM,
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS TESTED. POSSIBLE LONG TERM UPTREND RESUMPTION

EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week price action slowed down and the pair traded in a relatively tight range between 1.2000 support and 1.2092 resistance. Overall it was an uneventful week and the pair is likely to enter a consolidation phase.

resim

Technical Outlook

After the big climb seen during the Winter Holidays, price is now bouncing between support and resistance in anticipation of the next breakout. Last year’s high at 1.2092 is a key level for long term price action and a break would show uptrend resumption, followed by moves higher (next potential resistance is located at 1.2280). If the pair bounces at the current resistance, we will probably see a move into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and possibly 1.1900 – 1.1875 area; the oscillators are coming down from overbought, indicating that a move lower is likely.

Fundamental Outlook

The week opens with the release of the Eurozone Retail Sales scheduled Monday, which has a low-to-medium impact on the Euro and the next two days will lack any notable releases for both currencies.
Action picks up a bit Thursday with the release of the US Producer Price Index, which shows changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. This indicator has inflationary implications because usually a higher producer price translates into a higher consumer price.

Friday will be the busiest day of the week, with two important releases: the US Consumer Price Index (one of the main gauges of inflation) and the US Retail Sales. Both have a strong impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it, so we expect increased volatility, especially because the rest of the week lacks major releases.

GBP/USD

The pair had a mixed week, with the US Dollar showing brief moments of strength at the time of the FOMC Minutes release. The US jobs data came out worse than anticipated but the market reaction was jerky and without strong directional movement.

resim


Technical Outlook


Price bounced at 1.3616 resistance and appeared to move lower, towards 1.3450 support. This level can still be reached over the course of this week if the pair bounces again around 1.3600. The current level at 1.3550 will be important to watch on the lower time frames because the way price behaves around it will determine if the immediate target is 1.3600 – 1.3616 or 1.3450.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a very slow economic week ahead, with Wednesday being the only day with notable releases: the Manufacturing Production and NIESR GDP Estimate. The former report shows changes in the total value of goods generated by the manufacturing sector and the latter is just an estimate of the Gross Domestic Product so its impact is sometimes overlooked by market participants.
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01-15-2018, 05:31 PM,
FOREX NEWS: MAJOR BREAKOUTS UNDERWAY. BULLS TAKE CONTROL OF MEDIUM TERM PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro was boosted by news that the ECB might change their forward guidance to a more hawkish tone and also by positive news coming from the German political scene, later in the week. All this triggered a huge climb, breaking last year’s high.

resim

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.2092 shows that the long term uptrend has resumed and this makes 1.2280 the next target. This is a long term resistance that hasn’t been reached in a long time so we don’t know exactly how price will react once and if it touches it. Last week the pair has traveled a long distance to the upside and this usually calls for a retracement or a period of consolidation but as long as the pair remains above 1.2100, the bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook


Monday US banks will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day and no economic data will be released. Tuesday will be another slow day and action picks up a bit Wednesday with the U.S. Industrial Production and European Final CPI. These are indicators with a medium impact so we don’t expect huge movement at the time of release.

Thursday’s highlights will be the U.S. Building Permits and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index but again, these have a low-to-medium influence on the greenback so the impact may be overlooked. The final release of the week will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment scheduled Friday. This a survey that shows the opinions of consumers regarding economic conditions and it is important because a confident consumer is likely to spend more and this boosts the economy but it is not known as a strong market mover.

GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was present across the board last week, allowing the Pound to make substantial advances to the north after a ranging period.

resim

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.3616 resistance marks the possible beginning of an extended period of bullish movement. The strong breakout will most likely be followed by a small retracement south but overall the pair is moving up and the US Dollar offers little resistance. The next resistance and target for the week is located at 1.3860, where we expect a bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected by only two major releases this week: the British Consumer Price Index scheduled Tuesday and the British Retail Sales scheduled Friday. The former is the main gauge of inflation in the UK, while the latter has a strong impact because sales made at retail levels represent the biggest part of consumer spending. Numbers above expectations for either one of them have the potential to strengthen the Pound.
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