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10-14-2013, 11:18 AM,
#16
Forex Technical Analysis: A critical week for medium term trend

EUR/USD


Forex Technical Analysis: After a slow start, last week’s volatility picked up in its second part and the bears managed to take the pair lower on the back of US Dollar strength generated by speculation that US lawmakers may reach an agreement regarding the debt crisis.

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Technical Outlook

Last week’s most important level was 1.3520 which appeared to be broken to the down side initially, but price returned above it showing signs of rejection. At the moment price is trying to slide below it and the level will hold special importance for this week’s price action as well. A break lower would bring price into the support zone created between 1.3450 – 1.3560. If this zone is surpassed, the next major support is located at 1.3400. To the upside, 1.3650 represents the first important level but a move into that territory is less likely.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday the Eurogroup meetings take place in Brussels, attended by the Eurogroup President, Finance Ministers and the President of the ECB. A range of financial issues will be discussed, including support and stabilization mechanisms for the Euro. The same day, the Euro Zone Industrial Production values will be released. The event may bring the Euro higher if better than expected numbers are posted.

Tuesday’s most important event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is a well respected survey based on the opinions of German analysts and investors who are highly informed due to the nature of their jobs. The ECOFIN meetings take place the same day.

The only important economic indicator released Wednesday is the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index. Its importance comes from the fact that this indicator is used by the ECB as an inflation target.

The first important US event of the week is the release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which is scheduled for Thursday. The same day the change in US Unemployment Claims is announced. No major data releases are scheduled for Friday.


GBP/USD

Last Wednesday the pair experienced a major sell-off as the UK Manufacturing Production came out a lot worse than anticipated, severely weakening the Pound. The UK Interest Rate remained unchanged and the event didn’t create a lot of volatility.

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Technical Outlook

Last week’s movement brings the momentum in favor of the bears and lower prices are to be expected. After breaking 1.6000 to the down side, price re-rested it and bounced lower, confirming the fact that this level is now resistance. Our bias is bearish and we consider the next target to be 1.5850, followed by 1.5720. A move above 1.6000 is not out of the question but the probability is lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The UK Consumer Price Index comes out Tuesday, the same day as the Producer Price Index, two important economic indicators which have a lot of weight for the pair’s next direction. The Claimant Count Change is announced Wednesday, offering insights into UK’s jobs situation; the unemployment situation is closely related to consumer spending (people without jobs tend to spend less). UK’s Retail Sales numbers are released Thursday; this indicator is the primary gauge of consumer spending which represents the majority of overall economic activity.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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10-21-2013, 01:13 PM,
#17
Forex Technical Analysis: The Bulls have the Year’s high in sights.

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s highlight was the US debt crisis and the solution that was reached to end a 16 day government shutdown. However, the turmoil is likely to have a negative impact on future economic growth and investors believe the Fed will not taper the stimulus program, a fact which weakened the US Dollar.

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Technical Outlook

The result of this Dollar weakness was seen last Thursday in the form of an almost 170 pip rise which was continued Friday. The pair broke the resistance located at 1.3650 and is now sitting near the major resistance level of 1.3710 which coincides with this year’s highest peak. A break of the year’s high would generate additional bullish strength which will probably push prices even higher but due to the importance of this level, we don’t anticipate it to be broken in the first attempt. The first important level to the down side is located at 1.3650.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the week is the release Monday of the US Existing Home Sales which is the first in a series of housing market indicators. The most important US release of the week is the Non Farm Employment Change scheduled for Tuesday. This is the most important gauge of employment in the United States and its release was previously suspended due to the government shutdown.

Wednesday lacks important economic releases for the Euro or Dollar and Thursday’s headlines are the release of the German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (important and leading indicator of economic health focused on the Manufacturing sector) and the US New Home Sales.

The economic week finishes Friday with the release of the German Ifo Business Climate and the US Durable Goods Orders. Both indicators are correlated with optimism and higher numbers strengthen the currency.


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened throughout last week due to a better Consumer Price Index and better Retail Sales numbers. On top of that, the US Dollar weakened and as a result the bulls scored a major victory, taking price about 340 pips higher throughout the week.

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Technical Outlook

Last week’s massive rally took price in the resistance zone located around 1.6170 but it appears this level stopped the bullish momentum. Friday’s daily candle is showing rejection in the form of a long wick on its upper side and this level will probably be the most important of the week. Although the momentum belongs to the bulls, moves lower in the form of a retracement are not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

The minutes of the latest Meeting of the Bank of England will be released Wednesday and will contain the details of the members’ votes regarding the Interest Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility. Friday the UK Gross Domestic Product will be released and although its main components are known in advance, this indicator still remains the most important gauge of an economy’s progress and can have a high impact on the pair. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on price movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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10-28-2013, 01:48 PM,
#18
Forex Technical Analysis: Overbought prices – a retracement in the making.

EUR/USD


Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s most influential event was the release of the US Non Farm Employment report which was previously delayed due to the recent US government shutdown. A worse than expected figure was detrimental to an already weak US Dollar and the pair moved to the north for almost the entire week.

resim

Technical Outlook

For two weeks, the bulls have been in total control of the pair and their task of taking price higher was made easy by a weak US Dollar. Although the buyer’s strength is likely to continue to manifest itself in the form of higher prices, a retracement is anticipated. The overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index on a Daily chart adds more probability to this scenario and makes us believe that 1.3710 will be touched from above. This would complete the retracement and the pair would be able to resume its bullish movement afterwards.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Pending Home Sales are released Monday, showing the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but awaiting the final transaction. Tuesday will be a more important day as the US Retail Sales, Producer Price Index and Consumer Confidence indicators are released; better numbers usually strengthen the greenback and take the pair lower.

Wednesday the US Consumer Price Index comes out and is directly correlated with inflation because a higher CPI indicates that consumers pay more for the same product than they did before. The release was delayed 14 days due to the government shutdown and this makes it a highly anticipated indicator. The day’s most important event is the Federal Funds Rate decision and the FOMC Statement which offers insights into the economic and financial reasons that stood behind the members’ votes.

Thursday the German Retail Sales numbers are announced and the week finishes Friday with the release of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, a leading indicator of economic health based on the opinions of about 500 American purchasing managers.


GBP/USD

Last week the pair had another encounter with resistance but failed to break it; UK’s Gross Domestic Product came out as anticipated and this contributed to a rather slow week.

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Technical Outlook

The pair seems to have trouble breaking the resistance located at 1.6250 and at the moment we see a double top pattern forming on a Daily chart. This is a bearish formation which could reject price lower, stopping the uptrend. If this is the case, the first important support is located at 1.5915. However, if 1.6250 is broken, the pair’s next target will be the level of 1.6380 which is the highest price reached in over two years and thus, a key resistance and very important for future developments.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the Bank of England will announce the Net Lending to Individuals value, which is correlated to consumer spending so higher numbers are beneficial for the economy. It’s a slow week in terms of major economic UK data releases and the only other important indicator will be the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index which comes out Friday and shows economic health according to the opinion of about 600 purchasing managers.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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11-01-2013, 01:56 PM,
#19
resim
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11-04-2013, 03:01 PM,
#20
[CENTER]resim[/CENTER]
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11-05-2013, 04:08 PM,
#21
resim
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12-10-2013, 11:38 AM,
#22
Forex technical Analysis: Bounce or break – history repeats itself?

EUR/USD

Forex technical Analysis: Even if the start of last week was bearish, the Euro gained against the US Dollar later in the week on the back of hawkish comments made by ECB President Mario Draghi during Thursday’s ECB Press Conference.

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Technical Outlook
The bulls took the pair into the resistance located at 1.3710 and a “bounce or break” scenario is developing once again. If the buyers can maintain the positive sentiment throughout the week, this level will be broken and a move towards 1.3830 will start. However, after a strong upward move, a retracement is very possible and the resistance ahead may prove a good place for a bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook
The week ahead is rather slow in terms of economic and financial data but nonetheless, we must be aware of the Eurogroup meetings which take place Monday and will be attended by Finance Ministers of the member states, the Eurogroup President, the ECB President and other personalities of the Euro Zone economic and financial scene.

Tuesday the ECOFIN Meetings may generate volatility, depending on the matters discussed. The Meetings are attended by Finance Meetings of from EU member states who will discuss Euro support and stabilization mechanisms and other important finance matters.

Wednesday’s most important release is the German Final Consumer Price Index which tends to have less impact than the Preliminary version of the same indicator which was released 15 days earlier. Thursday the most anticipated event is the release of the US Retail Sales which show the fluctuation in sales value made at retail outlets.


GBP/USD
Last week price moved mostly on a downward path, influenced mostly by good US economic data which generated Dollar strength, but price action was mixed, characterized by a lot of whipsaws and sharp turns.

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Technical Outlook
Although on the lower time frames like four hour and hourly, the resistance located at 1.6380 appeared to be broken, from a daily chart perspective we can notice two pin candles created right on this level. These pin bars suggest that lower moves may follow and probably price will travel into the support level located at 1.6250. If that is broken, an extended move lower towards 1.5915 will possibly begin but we don’t expect such a move to be completed this week.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important UK economic indicator of the week is the Manufacturing Production which will be announced Tuesday. Manufacturing represents about 80% of all Industrial Production and thus tends to have a major impact on the pair’s movement. The same day, a Gross Domestic Product Estimate is released, showing expectations for the actual value of the Gross Domestic Product. Although it’s just an estimate, the release tends to have a notable impact on the pair. Of course, the US events mentioned earlier will affect price action directly.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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12-16-2013, 05:00 PM,
#23
Forex Technical Analysis: Draghi, Carney and Bernanke – Three reasons for volatility

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the pair was mainly influenced by the US Retail Sales data which came out better than anticipated and triggered a long awaited retracement to the downside. The strong bullish impulse reached an end and the bears took price at 1.3710.

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Technical Outlook
The important level located at 1.3710 acts as support now and since the uptrend is intact, we consider a bounce higher very possible. If this bounce occurs during the course of the week, the first upper target will be 1.3830, an important resistance level which was missed by a few pips last week. If 1.3710 is broken to the downside, the first support is located at 1.3650 and most likely the broken level will become resistance once again.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday’s most important event and a potential market mover is Mario Draghi’s testimony on monetary policy before the European Parliament, in Brussels. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released Tuesday and holds a special importance because it is derived from the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors who are highly informed due to the nature of their jobs.

Probably the main event of the week occurs Wednesday and is represented by the US Federal Funds Rate decision and the press conference which follows soon after. No change of the rate is expected but during the press conference Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will probably offer hints about the stimulus program and if this is the case, very strong moves will be triggered.

Thursday the US Existing Home Sales numbers and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are released, both being leading indicators of economic health with the potential of strengthening the US Dollar if their values are better than anticipated. Friday the final version of the US Gross Domestic Product is released but it tends to have a lower impact on the Dollar than previous versions.


GBP/USD
The US Dollar managed to take the pair lower, mostly due to the strength generated by better than anticipated data coming out of the United Stated but technical reasons were involved as well.

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Technical Outlook
Price returned below the important level of 1.6380 but a new high was reached at 1.6465 and this level will act as resistance. During next week, touches of 1.6380 from below are very possible but we anticipate a break of 1.6250 support and a move back inside the horizontal channel formed between 1.6250 and 1.5915. Direction will be strongly influenced by the US Federal Funds Rate press conference and UK releases will have a high impact as well.

Fundamental Outlook
The first important UK event of the week is the release of the British Consumer Price Index which is scheduled Tuesday. Consumer prices account for the majority of consumer inflation and the indicator itself is used by the Bank of England as an inflation target.

The Claimant Count is released Wednesday, showing the change in the number of unemployed people claiming social benefits related to unemployment. The same day the BoE Meeting Minutes come out, containing details about the latest votes on the Interest Rate and reasons behind those votes. The last UK event of the week is Thursday’s release of the Retail Sales, a potentially strong market mover because sales made at a retail level represent the greater part of consumer spending. As mentioned before, the US indicators and events will have a direct impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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12-21-2013, 03:45 PM,
#24
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resim
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12-24-2013, 10:55 AM,
#25
Forex Technical Analysis: Christmas week brings irregular market behavior

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s major event was Fed’s decision to reduce the monetary stimulus package from $85 billion to $75 billion per month, a fact which was perceived as bullish for the US Dollar and drove the pair lower.

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Technical Outlook
The US Dollar is benefiting from the latest Fed decision to taper the stimulus and technical reasons agree with a move below 1.3650 support, towards 1.3525. If this scenario comes true, we don’t expect price to drop sharply to touch the mentioned level and instead we believe several smaller moves up and down will occur until the target is reached. This week Christmas is celebrated, a fact which will clearly affect the market; irregular, low volatility price action may be experienced.

Fundamental Outlook
Being Christmas week, not a lot of economic data is released and most of the banks will be closed for the holiday. Just three events are worth mentioning as they may have an effect on the market: Tuesday the US Durable Goods Orders and the New Home Sales numbers are released, followed Thursday by the US Unemployment Claims. The impact of the events is unpredictable due to the thin volatility which will probably be experienced throughout the week.


GBP/USD
Better than expected UK unemployment data released last week triggered a substantial move higher and created a new high located at 1.6484 but a strong counter move brought the pair back down and prevented a clear break of resistance.

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Technical Outlook
Early last week the pair had another encounter with the support located at 1.6250, followed immediately by a move higher, suggesting bull strength. However, from a daily time frame perspective, the pair is moving sideways, bouncing between support and resistance, with neither side being in clear control. Trading will be made difficult by the holidays but the main levels to watch are 1.6250 as support and 1.6480 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the British Bankers’ Association will announce the Mortgage Approval numbers which are an excellent gauge of demand in the housing market but usually this indicator has a mild impact on the market. The US events mentioned earlier will directly affect the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 4-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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01-06-2014, 12:29 PM,
#26
Forex Technical Analysis: Price direction governed by Interest Rates and Non Farm Employment Report

EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The first part of last week was characterized by irregular movement and closed market due to New Year’s Eve and first day of the New Year but once trading resumed the bears took control of the pair, breaking two important levels of support.

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Technical Outlook
After several attempts at breaking the resistance located at 1.3830, the pair finally started to move to the downside, easily breaking 1.3710 and 1.3650 resistance levels. This indicates that bearish pressure has been building and that sellers are ready to shift the balance of power in their favor. The first target of the pair is 1.3455 followed by 1.3295 and the recently broken levels may turn into resistance if touched again from below.

Fundamental Outlook
The first event of the week is Monday’s release of the US Non Manufacturing PMI which is a leading indicator of economic health but excludes the manufacturing sector. Later in the day the US Senate will vote pro or against the nomination of Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve Chairperson, an event which may trigger increased volatility.

Tuesday the German Unemployment Change comes out, offering insights into the employment situation of Europe’s most influential economy and Wednesday’s most significant event will be the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The Minutes reveal details about the reasons which determined the members’ latest vote regarding the interest rate.

Thursday is the busiest day of the week as the European Central Bank will announce their interest rate decision which will be followed by a Press Conference. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at this conference and he will also answer audience questions; this second part of the conference usually creates the strongest volatility of the day as traders try to interpret his answers.

The trading week finishes Friday with the most important US employment indicator: the Non Farm Employment Change. The report measures fluctuations in the number of employed people excluding the farming sector and it is considered an extremely high impact indicator which can strengthen the US Dollar if higher than anticipated numbers are posted.

GBP/USD
Throughout last week the United Kingdom showed slightly worse than anticipated data, a fact which weakened the Pound and allowed the pair to move lower.

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Technical Outlook
The resistance formed around 1.6550 is holding strong and the first week of the year brought us a bounce lower off this level. Although the pair is in an uptrend on a Daily chart, the latest move down shows that the bears are making an attempt to reverse this trend. If they succeed, the first target is the support located at 1.6250 and a break of this level would bring the pair back into the ranging zone created between the mentioned level and 1.5915.

Fundamental Outlook
Early Monday morning the United Kingdom releases the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index which shows the performance of the services sector as perceived by purchasing managers and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The main event is the announcement of the Official Bank Rate which occurs Thursday and usually creates strong movement although no change is anticipated.

The last UK event of the week comes out Friday in the form of the Manufacturing Production which holds a great importance as manufacturing represents about 80% of all Industrial production and tends to have a strong impact on the Pound. The important US events of the week will directly affect the pair’s direction as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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01-13-2014, 12:03 PM, (This post was last modified: 01-27-2014, 11:02 AM by GDMFX.)
#27
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: RESUMING THE UPTREND OR JUST A SINGLE BULLISH MOVE?

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Trading last week was choppy and price didn’t find a clear direction until the release of the US Non Farm Employment report which showed surprisingly worse than anticipated numbers. Earlier in the week, the ECB decided to keep the interest rate unchanged but the event was overshadowed by the Dollar weakness generated by the US employment numbers.

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Technical Outlook
The pair broke 1.3650 resistance and the week ended above this level, following a bounce off the uptrend line drawn from the low created in July last year. If the US Dollar weakness will trigger an extended move to the upside, the resistance at 1.3710 is the first target of the pair and this is very likely to be touched. However, a break of the uptrend line mentioned earlier would indicate that bears are reversing the medium term direction of the pair and we are headed for new lows.

Fundamental Outlook
The first important event of the week comes out Tuesday in the form of the US Retail Sales numbers. Consumer spending represents about two thirds of the entire US economic activity and sales made at a retail level represent about one third of such spending, making the indicator a high impact one. Better numbers suggest increased economic activity and potentially a stronger greenback.
Wednesday the US Producer Price Index is announced, showing the change in prices charged by producers for their goods and services. The indicator has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will eventually be reflected in a higher price paid by consumers for those goods. Thursday the US Consumer Price Index comes out and it’s closely related to the Producer Price Index for the reasons outlined above. The same day the ECB Monthly Bulletin is made public, containing the Bank’s viewpoint on economic conditions and also details about the data which was analyzed when the Rate decision was made.
Friday the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence report is released; its importance comes from the fact that consumer confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending so better numbers suggest that economic activity might pick up and the Dollar will strengthen.


GBP/USD
Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged, as expected but last week’s main event was definitely the worse than expected US Non Farm Employment report which weakened the greenback and took the pair higher.

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Technical Outlook
Similar to the EUR/USD, the pair bounced higher from an uptrend line starting July last year and now it appears to be headed towards the resistance zone created around 1.6550. This level stopped strong moves in the past so we cannot assume yet that it will be broken but a touch is very likely. If the uptrend line will be broken, the support located at 1.6250 might be the pair’s next objective.

Fundamental Outlook
Just two important UK events are released this week: Tuesday the Consumer Price Index comes out, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase. The UK Retail Sales numbers are announced Friday; the indicator is a gauge of consumer spending and economic activity and has the potential to affect the pair strongly.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan
The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.
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01-20-2014, 12:39 PM, (This post was last modified: 01-27-2014, 11:03 AM by GDMFX.)
#28
Forex Technical Analysis: The break of diagonal support shifts the balance of power

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Throughout last week the US Dollar strengthened against the Euro and the bearish movement seen at the beginning of the year was resumed. Overall the bears were in control for most of the week.

resim

Technical Outlook
The trend line drawn upwards from last July’s low was broken during the week that just ended and we consider this a major victory for the bears. In the process, the support located at 1.3550 was also broken but moves up to re-test the broken level (and potentially the broken trend line) are possible; however, we consider the market to be in a medium term downtrend and we favor moves lower, towards 1.3455.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday the US banks are closed celebrating Martin Luther King Day so there will be no US economic releases. Tuesday the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released and it’s considered a high-impact indicator because its value is derived from the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors who are well informed about the economy due to the nature of their jobs.

Europe and the United States didn’t schedule any economic releases for Wednesday but Thursday the French and German Manufacturing PMI come out, showing the opinion of purchasing managers regarding the manufacturing sector in their respective countries. Better than expected numbers suggest increased optimism and a thriving economy. Later in the day the United States announce the Existing Home Sales which show the number of homes sold during last month, excluding new buildings.

Friday will be a slow day, with no scheduled US events; the Italian Retail Sales will be released by the Euro Zone but this is considered a low impact indicator.


GBP/USD
Last week’s main event and a huge market mover was the surprisingly better than anticipated value of the United Kingdom Retail Sales which took the pair back into the resistance located at 1.6440.

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Technical Outlook
The uptrend line drawn from the lowest point of last July was broken during last week but the UK Retail Sales numbers strengthened the Pound and at the moment price is testing from below the diagonal S/R level we just mentioned. We anticipate a bounce lower during this week and a move into the important support located at 1.6250 but a move back above the trend line could trigger additional buying pressure and a bullish move towards 1.6550.

Fundamental Outlook
The week is characterized by a lot of medium and low impact indicators released by the UK but the most important event is the release of the Bank of England Meeting Minutes scheduled Wednesday. The minutes contain the breakdown of the votes regarding the Asset Purchase Facility and the Interest Rate and also important insights into the reasons which stood behind those votes. The same day the British Claimant Count Change is announced, showing the fluctuation in the number of people who ask for social benefits derived from unemployment. The US events will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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01-27-2014, 10:58 AM, (This post was last modified: 01-27-2014, 11:03 AM by GDMFX.)
#29
Forex Technical Analysis: A week filled with major economic indicators

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week started without strong movement and a calm economic scene but as soon as better than expected Euro Zone Manufacturing data came out, the Euro strengthened substantially and the pair touched 1.3710 resistance once more.

resim

Technical Outlook
Although the bullish trend line was previously broken to the down side, last week’s developments brought price back above it and pierced through 1.3710 resistance. However, on the Daily chart we can notice a pin bar (candle with long upper wick) which suggests rejection and a potential move lower. If 1.3710 holds, the next target may be 1.3550 support but a move above the mentioned resistance will open the door for a move towards 1.3830.

Fundamental Outlook
The first event of the week is scheduled Monday and it’s the German Ifo Business Climate which draws its importance for the large sample used: about 7,000 businesses are surveyed and asked to rate the current economic conditions and to offer a 6-month outlook. The US New Home Sales are released the same day, showing the number of houses sold during the previous month.

Tuesday the United States announce the Durable Goods Sales which represent purchases of goods with a life expectancy of at least three years. Later in the day the US Consumer Confidence indicator is released and is often regarded as a leading indicator of consumer spending.

The most important event of the week is release of the FOMC Statement and US Federal Funds rate decision scheduled Wednesday. The rate is not expected to change and probably the monetary stimulus issue will be the more important aspect which will most likely create huge volatility in the market.

Thursday Germany announces the Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation; the same day, the US releases the Gross Domestic Product which is an economy’s main performance measurement. The trading week finishes Friday with the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index and the German Retail Sales; both are considered high-impact indicators which have the ability to move the market strongly.


GBP/USD
The Pound made substantial advances last week and the pair traveled a respectable distance to the north, breaking 1.6600 resistance and printing a new high at 1.6668.

resim

Technical Outlook
Although the bulls were in control for almost the entire week, taking the pair above 1.6600 resistance, during the last day of the previous week price dropped for almost 200 pips indicating that a reversal may be happening. The bullish trend line is not clearly broken but if this occurs, the pair’s medium term direction will be bearish and a move toward 1.6250 will be highly probable. Otherwise, 1.6750 is the next target for the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the week for the Pound is the release of UK’s Preliminary Gross Domestic Product which is scheduled Tuesday. As mentioned before, the Gross Domestic Product is an economy’s main gauge of performance and the Preliminary release tends to have the greatest impact on price action. Wednesday the UK Nationwide House Price Index is released and Thursday the value of Net Lending to Individuals comes out but both are considered medium-impact indicators and the effect on the pair varies from month to month. Of course, the US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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02-05-2014, 12:04 PM,
#30
Forex Technical Analysis: Interest Rates and Non Farm Payrolls guarantee an action-packed week

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the bears scored an important victory and the pair dropped significantly on the back of the US bond purchase program tapering. Although Fed’s decision didn’t trigger an immediate response in the market, the effect was clearly seen during the next two days.

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Technical Outlook
The uptrend line drawn from July last year was broken decisively and so was the support located at 1.3550. This puts the bears in control from a medium term perspective and opens the door for additional moves to the down side, making 1.3400 the first target of the week. Retracements higher may find good resistance at the recently broken level of 1.3550.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a full week ahead of us, with the first important economic indicator being released Monday in the form of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. Wednesday the ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released; this report is put together by a private company but it usually offers hints about the Government released report which comes out 2 days later.

Thursday is an important day as the ECB will announce the Interest Rate decision and President Mario Draghi will hold a Press Conference during which he will answer journalists’ questions and will talk about the reasons which determined the interest rate vote. The Press Conference usually creates more volatility than the rate decision itself so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

Friday the most anticipated report of the week is released: the US Non Farm Employment Change which is considered to be the most important gauge of the employment situation in the United States and almost always a huge market mover.


GBP/USD
The pair had another encounter with the resistance located at 1.6600 but this was soon followed by a drop which was mainly triggered by the US developments regarding the reduction of bond purchases.

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Technical Outlook
Although the pair had a bearish week, the drop wasn’t as significant as the one seen on the EUR/USD and moves to the upside are very possible. However, we favor the short side for the week to come, taking into consideration the fact that price pierced through the uptrend line for the second time and 1.6600 resistance rejected price lower again. First major support is located at 1.6250 and resistance at 1.6600.

Fundamental Outlook

Three Purchasing Managers’ Indexes are released throughout the first three days of the week: Manufacturing PMI, Construction PMI and Services PMI, each showing the opinions of purchasing managers about their respective sectors and each having the ability to strengthen the Pound if better than expected values are posted. The most important Pound-affecting event is the Bank of England Interest Rate decision and the Asset Purchase Facility value, both released Thursday. No change is anticipated for either of them but a surprise will trigger huge volatility. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com



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