Instaforex Daily Analysis

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03-02-2015, 08:05 PM,
#1
resim

Fundamental Outlook: USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk sentiment as China cut interest rates for the second time in four months on Saturday, reducing its one-year lending rate to 5.35% from 5.6% and its one-year deposit rate to 2.5% from 2.75%. While China's manufacturing PMI unexpectedly improved to 49.9 in February from 49.8 in January (versus forecast for no change at 49.8) and China's non-manufacturing PMI rose to 53.9 in February from 53.7 in January. USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan's importers, the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.45 versus 95.28 early Friday) on stronger-than-expected US 4Q GDP growth by 2.2% (versus forecast +2.0%), the higher final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index of 95.4 (versus forecast 94.0 and preliminary reading of 93.6) for February. But the USD sentiment is dented by the larger-than-expected fall in the US ISM Chicago PMI to 45.8 in February from 59.4 in January (forecast 58.0), weaker-than-expected 1.7% on-month increase in the US January pending home sales index (versus forecast +2.0%). The USD/JPY gains also tempered by lower US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.002% versus 2.014% late Thursday) and the Japanese exports. Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is neutral, but the MACD is bullish. Five and 15-day moving averages are rising. Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120 and the second target at 120.35. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.60. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.60. The pivot point is at 119.50. Resistance levels: 120 120.35 120.75 Support levels: 119.10 118.60 118.25

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57461/

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EURUSD Market Analysis
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03-02-2015, 08:08 PM,
#2
resim

Fundamental overview: USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.45 versus 95.28 early Friday) on stronger-than-expected US 4Q GDP growth by 2.2% (versus forecast +2.0%), higher final February University of Michigan consumer sentiment index of 95.4 (versus forecast 94.0 and preliminary reading of 93.6), the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Technical comment: The daily chart positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics is bullish, although the latter is at overbought levels, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing. Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9590 and the second target at 0.9630. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9445. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9405. The pivot point is at 0.9495. Resistance levels: 0.9590 0.9630 0.9690 Support levels: 0.9445 0.9405 0.9365

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57459/
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03-02-2015, 08:10 PM,
#3
resim

Fundamental overview: NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range. Kiwi sentiment is boosted by the quarterly drop by 1.9% in New Zealand's 4Q terms of trade (versus forecast -3.1%). NZD/USD ia also supported by China's rate cut on Saturday, Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion and the NZD-USD interest differential. But the NZD/USD gains are tempered by the positive dollar sentiment. Technical comment: The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing. Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7570 and the second target at 0.7615. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7470. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7430. The pivot point is at 0.7515. Resistance levels: 0.7570 0.7615 0.7655 Support levels: 0.7470 0.7430 0.74

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57457/
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03-02-2015, 08:11 PM,
#4
resim

Fundamental overview: The GBP/JPY is expected to trade buoyant. It is supported by diminished investor risk aversion and demand of Japanese importers. It is also supported by sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross and sterling demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid diminished risk aversion. But GBP/JPY upside is limited by weak EUR/USD undertone and Japanese importers sales. Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed, as stochastics is bearish, a five-day moving average is below a 15-day moving average and is declining, but the MACD is still in a bullish mode. Trading recommendations: The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 183.35. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 182.90. The pivot point stands at 184.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 185.05 and the second target at 185.70. Resistance levels: 185.05 185.70 186.15 Support levels: 183.35 182.90 182.50

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57451/
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03-02-2015, 08:14 PM,
#5
resim
The market has been pushing lower aggressively after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVELS around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010. The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 800 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450, especially after the FULL bearish MONTHLY below 1.2000 (January's monthly candlestick).
resim

resim
Bearish breakout below 1.2000 and 1.1900 (prominent psychological SUPPORT) allowed a quick bearish decline towards 1.1100 to take place few days later. Conservative traders were suggested to wait for a bullish pullback looking for better prices to SELL the EUR/USD pair off (R1 at 1.1550 and R2 at 1.1700). However, the EUR/USD bulls did not show enough bullish momentum to reach these levels. Instead, a bearish Flag pattern was established on the daily chart. DAILY fixation below the price level of 1.1260 (recent bottom) confirmed this bearish pattern. Risky traders could wait for a bullish pullback towards the price level of 1.1260 (recent SUPPLY level) for SHORTING the pair. Initial bearish target would be located around 1.1110 (weekly low).

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57453/
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03-02-2015, 08:18 PM,
#6
resim

resim

Overview: The USD/CAD pair has been trending upwards within the bullish channel depicted on the WEEKLY chart. The market looked overbought since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels as well as the 79.6% Fibonacci level. That is why a bearish correction that started off 1.2750 was anticipated in the previous articles. The nearest SUPPORT level to meet the USD/CAD pair is located around 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level). Note that the USD/CAD bulls have been defending the recent INTRADAY SUPPORT around 1.2300 (broken 79.6% Fibonacci Level). The market has not retested the newly-established DAILY SUPPORT around 1.2000 yet. Note that successive lower highs are being established within the wedge-pattern depicted on the DAILY chart. DAILY closure below the price level of 1.2300 exposes the next DAILY SUPPORT around 1.2000 where the backside of the upper limit of the breached channel is located. On the other hand, the bullish persistence above 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.2760-1.2780 without further retesting of 1.2000.� Trading recommendations: Wait for a DAILY closure below 1.2300 for SHORTING the USD/CAD pair. TP levels should be set at 1.2250 and 1.2190. Stop Loss should be set as DAILY closure again above the ENTRY levels (1.2300).��

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57449/
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03-02-2015, 08:19 PM, (This post was last modified: 03-02-2015, 08:19 PM by abruzzi.)
#7
resim

resim

Overview: The daily closure below the recent bottoms located around 1.5540-1.5560 rendered the previous consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with the projection target at 1.5300. The market has already pushed further below reaching down to 1.5030-1.4980 where the lower limit of the channel provided support for the pair few weeks ago. The H4 chart showed a transition phase into a sideways movement that has been maintained within the depicted price range. On February 5, initial bullish breakout above 1.5220 took place. Shortly after, a new DAILY support was established around 1.5170-1.5200 (ascending bottoms, a sign of ongoing bullish momentum). Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trending upwards within the depicted H4 channel. Persistence of the pair above the recent DAILY support (the price zone of 1.5170-1.5200) applied extensive bullish pressure over the price level of 1.5360 (61.8% Fibonacci level on the H4 chart) which did not provide enough RESISTANCE. The long-term projection target for the recent bullish breakout above 1.5220 is located around 1.5500-1.5550 where the previous DAILY bottoms are located (DAILY RESISTANCE). Trading recommendations: A valid SELL entry can be taken at retesting of the price level of 1.5550. SL should be located above 1.5600. TP levels to be placed at 1.5480, 1.5360 and finally at 1.5280. Risky traders can wait for DAILY fixation below 1.5350 to take a short-entry with TP at 1.5280 and 1.5210.�

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57447/
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03-02-2015, 08:22 PM,
#8
During the last session, we had already watched a strong bullish momentum of the USDX in a daily chart, as the instrument tested the resistance level of 95.45 again. We could expect a higher high pattern formation for now, because the USDX is looking to hit the next resistance zone around the 96.96 level.

resim
A strong resistance level is located at 95.52, where the USDX is trying to form a bullish pattern in order to strength the current upward bias. At the H1 chart, the 200 SMA is still bullish and the USDX could probably reach the resistance level of 96.63 throughout the week. On the other hand, if the USDX does a breakout at the support level of 95.31, it could test the 94.87 level.

resim
Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.45 / 96.96 Dailychart's support levels: 94.18 / 93.02 H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.52 / 96.63 H1 chart's support levels: 94.02 / 93.87 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 94.38, take profit is at 94.87, and stop loss is at 94.41.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57445/
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03-02-2015, 08:23 PM,
#9
We are still watching bullish moves in the medium and long term for GBP/USD as the pair continues trying to reach the resistance level of 1.5491. There is a room for a new bullish momentum, but buyers will get stronger when a breakout at that resistance zone happens. If it is successful, there will be enough room for taking advantage of the bullish momentum until the next resistance placed at the level of 1.5761.

resim
On the H1 chart we can see a consolidation below the 200 SMA, that could jeopardize our current bullish intraday outlook on GBP/USD. By the way, there is still a chance that the pair could perform a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5413 with a target placed at the level of 1.5455. With a pullback at the current levels, the GBP/USD pair could test the support level of 1.5340.

resim
Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5761 / 1.5957 Dailychart's support levels: 1.5491 / 1.5247 H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5413 / 1.5455 H1 chart's support levels: 1.5340 / 1.5257 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place long (buy) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5413, take profit is at 1.5455, and stop loss is at 1.5370.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57443/
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03-02-2015, 08:25 PM,
#10
resim

Technical outlook and chart setups: The GBP/CHF pair has bounced off an intermediary trend line support around 1.4600 as seen here on the hourly chart setup. The pair is trading above 1.4700 for now and could be looking to push higher towards 1.4895 and 1.4980 levels respectively. Only a break below 1.4600 levels would indicate that a top is in place at 1.4760/70 levels and a deeper correction has begun. At the moment, it is recommended to initiate long positions with stop below 1.4600 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.4600 levels (interim), followed by 1.4400 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.4760/70 interim), followed by 1.4890 and higher respectively. Trading recommendations: Initiate long positions, stop at 1.4550, a target 1.4970. Good luck!

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57432/
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03-02-2015, 08:27 PM,
#11
resim

Technical outlook and chart setups: The EUR/JPY pair produced an indecision candlestick chart pattern on Friday indicating a potential reversal. At the moment, the pair is seen trading around 133.90/134.00 levels, and it is expected to resume rally from here on. It is hence recommended to hold long positions and also look to add further with risk at 132.50 for now. Immediate support is seen at 133.40/50 levels (interim), followed by 132.50, 130.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 137.50/138.00 levels followed by 142.30 and higher respectively. Bulls are expected to remain in control till prices remain above 132.50. Trading recommendations: Remain long, stop at 132.50, a target 138.00 Good luck!

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57434/
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03-02-2015, 08:29 PM,
#12
Gold price held the support of $1,200 last week and now is trying once again to break above the weekly resistance at $1,225. The short-term trend has changed to bullish, so this increases the chances of an upward move towards $1,250.

resim
Black line = resistance Red line = support Gold price has broken above the short-term resistance trend line and above the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart. This is a bullish signal. This implies that an important low was made at $1,188 and that we should expect a tradeable bounce towards $1,250. Strong resistance is also at the 61.8% retracement of the decline at $1,262.

resim
The weekly chart shows how the price is trying to break above the kijun-sen (yellow line). The trend is bearish in the longer term, but we cannot rule out a bounce towards the cloud resistance at $1,260-$1,270.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57435/
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03-02-2015, 08:31 PM,
#13
The US Dollar index has broken the triangle pattern to the upside and has back-tested as expected in our last analysis. Now the index is making new higher highs confirming the bullish breakout. I expect to see new highs towards 97-98 or even 100 over the coming weeks.

resim
Red line = triangle pattern The US Dollar index has broken the triangle upwards and is above the Ichimoku cloud. The trend is bullish in the short term as well. Support is found at 95-94.90. Resistance is at 95.50 where the previous high is found.

resim
Black lines = triangle The daily chart remains fully bullish. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud and above the Kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators. Daily support is at 94.20 and as long as we are above that level, trend will remain fully bullish with 97-98 as the first target area.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57437/
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03-02-2015, 08:33 PM,
#14
General overview for 02/03/2015 09:40 CET It is quite possible that the triangle formation was completed. Now market is trying to break out above the level of 1.2533 and the golden trend line. The first target would be the green trend line dynamic resistance at the level of 1.2600 and then a big supply zone from higher time frame marked as a grey rectangle. Nevertheless, before market would do that, there is one more wave to complete in the corrective structure to finish wave (ii) green of the overall intraday impulsive progression. Please, notice that any violation of the level of 1.2386 invalidates the impulsive bullish wave development. Support/Resistance: 1.2367 - WS1 1.2386 - Invalidation Level 1.2447 - Intraday Support 1.2515 - Weekly Pivot 1.2533 - Intraday Resistance 1.2600 - Dynamic Trend Line Resistance Trading recommendations: Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening buy orders from the current market levels with SL below the level of 1.2385 and TP open for now.

resim
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57439/
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03-02-2015, 08:34 PM,
#15
General overview for 02/03/2015 10:20 CET The overall labeling of the recent wave progression has been slightly changed and now the top of wave C black is labeled as wave W brown and the recent low of (a)(b)© blue wave progression is labeled as wave Y brown. That change is a merely labeling change and the longer term outlook remains the same � wave Y brown is missing to the upside in order to complete the overall corrective cycle in wave 4 black. Please notice that the market must break out above an intraday resistance at the level of 134.43 and then break even higher above the golden trend line to continue with the upward wave progression. Any failure here would result in lower levels of the wave X brown test. Support/Resistance: 132.77 - WS1 133.43 - Intraday Support 134.22 - Weekly Pivot 134.43 - Intraday Resistance 135.02 - WR1 Trading recommendations: Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening buy orders from the current market levels with SL below the level of 133.43 and TP open for now.

resim

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/57441/



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