"fort Financial Services"- Fundamental And Technical Analysis

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07-31-2014, 06:00 AM,
#16
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

31.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The market has already shown the directed activity and the U.S. dollar strengthened on all fronts. Apparently, investors "bought the rumor" expecting the U.S. economy good forecasts.

The labor report prophecy affects the pair supporting the dollar growth interest. The data presented yesterday changed the U.S. currency optimism and noted the different trends direction.

The Fed's decision announcement will become the final event which will decide the monetary policy future. The imminent tightening hints add acceleration to the dollar growth as its absence may trigger the stop and reducing correction.

The IMF believes that if the UK inflation grows actively, the new BoE regulations on real estate market won't be effective to prevent the "bubble" formation and the Bank of England will have to tighten the monetary policy sooner than was predicted.

The British economy analysis annual report from the IMF found the current BoE ultra soft policy acceptable, but it should be possible to correct it quickly in case of inflation acceleration. The IMF believes that the "cooling" of the housing market interest rate increase is necessary.

During the Asian session, there were received much Japanese macroeconomic data which showed the unemployment rate within 3.7% compared with the predicted 3.5% and the region retail sales 0.4% compared with the expected 0.8%. This fact pressured the Japanese currency and lifted the dollar.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The euro fell to new low against the dollar on yesterday's trading day. In the absence of any encouraging Eurozone news for the "bulls" on the euro, the euro has remained under the influence of continuing geopolitical risks, further ECB easing expectations and the rumors about the good U.S. economy results supported the dollar sentiment.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3290. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is going down.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.3290.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British currency resumed its decrease against the dollar after two days of sideways consolidation. Perhaps the market didn’t find the BoE lending information enough encouraging which along with very good statistics showed some negative aspects.

The pound was pressured by the U.S. economy strong data expectations and the political impulse related with the FOMC solutions emergence. There won't be any news on the pound so it will remain under the external information influence primarily from the United States.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6900, the next one is at 1.6860. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.7000.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 1.6880- 1.6900 testing soon. The potential growth target is the level of resistance 1.7000.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The pressure on the yen was resumed by the dollar after a short break. The prospect of getting the good reports on the U.S. economy and the risk of hearing the Fed policy tightening imminent probability hints are more influential factors than the fears for worsening the geopolitical situation. The published consumer spending, unemployment and retail sales in June had no effect on the market. The employment and GDP good results will add support for the dollar, but it will mostly depend on the Fed’s information - the "pigeon" plan rhetoric will return the pair to the decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 102.70, the next one is at 102.23. The price is finding the first resistance at 103.00, the next one is at 103.35.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 101.60 breakthrough up the way to the resistance 103.35 is opened.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The dollar touched its highest level for the last seven weeks against the major competitors in anticipation of the U.S. economic recovery. The employment report which is expected this Friday is expected to show the continued employment growth and the Fed's may leave the current monetary policy rhetoric.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9170.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.

resim

resim
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08-01-2014, 06:16 AM,
#17
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar index basket (USDX) set a fresh 2014 high at 81.54 on the back of the U.S. positive macroeconomic data.

The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the positive U.S. GDP data for the 2nd quarter during the day. The index went significantly better forecasted medians of 4% qoq. We should note the significant personal consumption expenditures increase to the level of 2.5%. This releases point to the strong economic growth which created the foundation for the subsequent months. The U.S. Fed meeting outcome brought no surprises and market participants took profits on the short positions, as the result the euro was able to regain some lost ground.

The GBP/USD also remained under the pressure. The pound fully copied the euro trading dynamics because the UK published any significant macroeconomic releases. The FOMC meeting went as expected - the QE-3 program was decreased by $10 billion as 9 out of 10 committee members expressed the view that the current macroeconomic situation was not balanced enough to think about the monetary policy tightening. Only Charles Plosser disagreed with this view, saying that the Fed turned a blind eye to the strong economic growth.

The Japanese stock market, unlike its American and European colleagues shows an upward trend, storming the strong resistance levels. Together with the positive US GDP release for the 2nd 2014 quarter, we have witnessed the "bulls rally" on the USD/JPY.


resim

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The euro fell against the dollar under the good U.S. economy data at the time when the own messages have not been able to support the EU economy. The euro support came after Fed sentiment reports to keep the monetary policy soft. This stopped the euro/dollar decline, but did not allow it to get rid of losses.

The euro continues to decrease against the dollar at higher volumes. The trades still go on the descending channel direction which upper bound of 1.3380-1.3400 shows the price corrective growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3290. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.3420. If the price falls it will get to 1.3360. The way to the mark 1.3290 will be opened after this breakthrough.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The sterling continued to be under the external information influence due to the lack of UK news and like other majors fell against the dollar the other day. It is possible that investors will continue to analyze the Fed data and resume expectations on the U.S. labor report which is likely to determine the lateral GBP/USD trading consolidation.

The price went up to the trendline at lower volumes which speaks about the downward trend relief. The first 1.6900 mark retest did not bring any positive results for the bears.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6825. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6900, the next one is at 1.6950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair does not break the level of 1.6860 down we expect the growth to 1.6950.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese yen was the most vulnerable asset in the foreign exchange market and fell against all the main opponents the other day. Obviously, the U.S. news were the main influence factors in a dispute with the dollar tossed the pair up

The customers managed to consolidate above two strong resistance levels of 102.23 and 102.70. The breakthrough of the last level of 102.70 upward allowed the price to get out of a six-month limit rectangle side.

The price is finding the first support at 102.70, the next one is at 102.23. The price is finding the first resistance at 103.00, the next one is at 103.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 103.00, the next one is 103.35.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The data showed that the United States economy strongly accelerated in the second quarter, but growth is constrained by the Fed indication that the interest rates will remain on the same level.

The sharp dollar rise led to the USD/CHF restoration to the new high in the last six months.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.

resim

resim
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08-04-2014, 05:40 AM,
#18
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar upward trend is speeding up. However, the market participants stayed away from an active trading as major pairs spent all day within the lateral trend. The EUR/USD has ignored the weak Eurozone CPI for July. According to preliminary data, the inflation was reduced to the level of 0.4% year on year, and the deflation threat becomes stronger and stronger. The only thing that was a honey spoonful in a tar barrel is the unemployment reducing to the level of 11.5%. Nevertheless, the bond market mood are in favor of a further euro/dollar decline - the American and German bonds yield spread widening certainly will support the American currency. Nevertheless, the pair fell at the end of the last trading week.

The GBP/USD came again under attack, losing on the day of 0.2%. The investors are selling the British currency as the States came to the Forex with its positive macroeconomic releases. In addition, we observed the BoE disagreements about the tightening monetary policy which clearly plays into the bears hands.

The weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan did not allow the bears to compensate some lost ground on the USD/JPY. Reducing salaries combined with the rising unemployment in June became the negative factor for the personal use and will slow the GDP’s growth. Japanese stock market sales weren’t able to exert pressure on the USD/JPY - bulls are confident and keep the situation under control. However, the pair decreased.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The short term support level of 1.3375 suspended the single currency reduction against the American dollar. Double-sellers failed to break below 1.3375 to continue the trend steadily downward.

The trading volumes remain in the growing area, indicating the continued downward trend strength. However, the sellers need to break below the current support level of 1.3375 to confidently continue the downward movement. The pair closed the trading week above the level of 1.3420.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential downward movement targets are the support levels: 1.3360, 1.3290.

Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 1.3420 which has already become the support. The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.3480.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British Pound continues to decline and set a new 7week low at 1.6821. The pound decrease advances dollar strengthening amid the weak UK real estate market data and BoE official's soft comments.

Three-week pound downtrend gradually fizzles out. The last few days the dollar strengthening against GBP comes at the low volumes. The corrective price growth up may be expected in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6825, the next one is at 1.6770. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is going down. Still we expect the growth. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.6900, 1.6950.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Forex traders were disappointed with the low volatility at the market which was started earlier this year. Obviously, there was a self-replicating cycle whereby the pulse absence prevents the new trading range formation that makes many traders to stay away from the market which weakens the impulse.

The last month maximum 102.79 update led to the short-term consolidation above the strong support level of 102.70. Inverse retest level was followed with the lower volumes and in the longer term may serve as a signal for future price growth. Nevertheless, the pair decreased below the level of 102.70.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 103.80-104.00.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar strengthened its position against the franc in anticipation of the United States labor market data publication. Then the pair went down and closed the trading week below the level of 0.9060.

Investors are now focused on USA initial jobless claims. The economists expect the job growth in July 230000.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9035, the next one is at 0.9000. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9090. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9130.

resim

resim
Offline
08-05-2014, 06:39 AM,
#19
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD trading was within a narrow consolidation. The traders are waiting. The employment release went worse then the median forecasts - 209 thousand new jobs were created in the United States in July, thus the unemployment increased by 0.1%. However, the Non-Farm figure has been above the key level of 200 thousand for 6 consecutive months which tells us about the strong economic growth. Also the hourly wage has not demonstrated any growth that combined with the reduction in personal spending will act as a deterrent to inflationary pressures.

The sales seen in the GBP/USD pair amid the weak macroeconomic statistics, as well as the cross-rate euro/pound strengthening. The PMI manufacturing sector UK shows the reduction third month in a row that has provoked the British pound strong sales against the U.S. dollar and the single European currency. At the moment the quotation fell to 1.6815, but then the consolidation came.

The bears triumph on the world's leading stock markets together with the moderately negative employment release in the United States led the bulls begin to take the profits on the long positions in the USD/JPY after 2 weeks of the growth. At the moment the quotation fell to 102.30, but in this area there was a demand for the U.S. dollar which allowed the bulls to recover some lost positions.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The pair has been in the downward trend for three month and can change the direction in the short term. The current pullback happened when the price broke the upper boundary.

We should also mention the fact that the price left the downward trend at the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement will be continued. The upward bounce potential target is the resistance level of 1.3480. We expect the level of 1.3480 retesting soon.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The GBP/USD the long uptrend turned down. The British pound has actively been decreasing against the U.S. dollar for almost a month. The rebound from the resistance level of 1.7160 was followed by the price’s sharp falling and the two critical supports breakdown.

The last week allowed the sellers to strengthen their position due to the strong support level of 1.6950 breakthroughs and the rising trendline 1.6900. The two strong supports breaks happened amid an increased volume. In the longer term, this means a continued downward trend.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6825, the next one is at 1.6770. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 1.6825 which has already become the support. We recommend going short with the first target - 1.6770. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level of 0.6700.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The U.S. dollar strengthening against the Japanese yen has allowed the buyers to break above the downward trend line 101.60 and the strong resistance level of 102.70.

The resistance level of 102.70 break was short-lived. Two day consolidation above the breakout was followed by a short-term break down. The level reverse breakthrough was followed by the increased volume, but at the same time, this breakthrough is not considered as a signal to reverse the upward trend.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 102.23 which has already become the support. The potential growth target is the resistance level of 103.35.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The frank slightly weakened against the dollar. Despite the latest correction that was provoked by the weaker-than-expected data on the U.S. labor market, the dollar strengthened against the major currencies at the end of the last week.

As it became known, in the U.S., the Non Farms amounted to 209K in July vs. 233K and 288K in June. The unemployment rate rose to 6.2% against 6.1%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9035. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9000.

resim

resim
Offline
08-06-2014, 08:36 AM,
#20
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

Trading week beginning was a quiet enough. The EUR/USD was within a narrow range of 1.3409 - 1.3431. Then the pair fell to 1.3361. In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics the traders took a pause. Only the moderate euro/pound cross-course decrease allowed the bears to win.

The UK construction sector PMI release showed the decrease compared with the previous month, but was better than the forecasted medians. It should be noted that this figure has been stable for 9 consecutive months being above $60% which proves the UK construction sector positive trend. The market participants took profits on the GBP/USD short positions amid this moderately positive backdrop.

We could see the dollar/yen side tendency during the day. In the second half of the U.S. trading session there was the demand for the U.S. stock market, which supported the pair.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European currency was within a narrow range against the dollar and then the pair fell. Obviously, this "marking time" can be explained by the expectations about the ECB mood and intentions which will be clear after the coming meeting. The market nervousness is still preserved as the further easing probability is high.

The price bounce from the descending channel allowed the buyers to stop the downward trend at the support level of 1.3360. We observed the bounce up from the price level which was followed by a high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3290. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The breakthrough of 1.3420 mark will open the way up to the next resistance located at around 1.3480. The mark of 1.3480 retest is more likely to lead to the short-term consolidation.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound became the leader, after it got stronger against the dollar, but also against the euro and the yen. The sterling was supported by the construction sector activity - the PMI index for this economy sector in July fell slightly to 62.4 from 62.6 previously, but was stronger than it was forecast, waited falling to 62.1.

Before the BoE's meeting the market is not likely to risk much to build positions so the pound growth, even if it happens will not be large and long.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6770. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6900, the next one is at 1.6950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The 1.6900 mark retest is likely to happen during the GBP fundamental data release. If the retest is false, we expect the downward trend continuation. The nearest target is the support level of 1.6770.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar/yen was being traded in the sideways consolidation and was closed at the starting positions yesterday. For a while, we saw the yen increase against dollar amid the continuing U.S. treasuries profitability fall, but by the session end the situation align the instrument and the result turned out to be neutral.

Three false retests of 103.00 resistance level served as a signal for the downward correction formation. The breakthrough of the support level of 102.70 allowed sellers to revise the uptrend line.

The U.S. dollar corrective weakness against the Japanese yen is not supported by the trade volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers cannot break below the rising trend line of 102.23, so it is likely to expect the price bounce up. The potential growth targets are the two marks: 102.70 and 103.00.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar was steady against the major currencies basket after the Friday decrease when the data showed that the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than was expected in July.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend short positions with the first target - 0.9035. After fixing below the first target we recommend 0.9000 as the next aim.

resim


resim
Offline
08-07-2014, 07:31 AM,
#21
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD is in the bears’ power on the background of the positive macroeconomic data from the United States. The ISM in the services sector came out much better than expected at around 58.7. It should be noted that the rate showed significant acceleration above the 12-month moving average in July. This release, together with the manufacturing sector data indicates a strong economic growth in the United States at the third quarter beginning.

The GBP/USD has a quite weak reaction to the strong report on the UK Services PMI. The bulls stormed the resistance level of 1.6881, but the attempts were unsuccessful. As soon as the sell-off in the cross-rate EUR/GBP traders allowed to finish the day on a positive note.

The battle between bulls and bears in the USD/JPY pair was won by the minimum on the background of the recent sales in the global stock markets which took down Japanese stock market. Even the positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States failed to reassure market participants to break through the 103rd figure.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The European currency fell against the dollar, despite the fact that the economic indicators of June and July showed a positive trend compared with the previous period. The retail sales in the euro zone rose in June by 0.4% against the results of May and the data of the second month of spring have been revised upwards.

The single currency against the American dollar corrective gains proved not for a long time. A short-term price consolidation below the resistance level of 1.3430 to which the buyers have come on a heavy volume resulted in the downtrend continuation.

The sellers renewed the minimum of the last week at the level of 1.3385 and fixed below the current support level of 1.3360.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3290. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.3360, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.3300.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British pound has shown a resilience trading and has grown against all its major opponents. However, his achievements with respect to the American "greenback" have been relatively modest, only 20 or so points, although the index of activity in the economy key area – the services recorded a solid growth despite the fact that no changes are expected. This fact supported the British currency.

We should not expect any growth activity, as investors are waiting when the Bank of England should say about the monetary policy prospects.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6770, the next one is at 1.6700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair is planning to go upwards. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.6900, 1.6950.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The dollar/yen that was rising sales at the first part of the yesterday's session returned to its original positions by the end of the day. The market risk aversion has increased amid the tensions escalating between Russia and Ukraine which is reflected in the stock markets and prompted a return to the yen which is a safe haven.

The American dollar corrective weakness against the Japanese yen was stopped at the support level of 102.23. Short-level tests were followed by the price rebound upwards. However, there was not any upward trend continuation, the buyers failed to raise the price above 102.70.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward trend line 102.23 retest is more likely to lead to the consolidation. After that, the trend is expected to be continued upwards.

resim

Frank (CHF)

General Overview


The dollar rose after the Institute for Supply Management said that its purchasing managers index in the services sector grew last month to three-year high 58.7 from 56.0 in June. Analysts had expected the index to reach 56.3 in July.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.

resim

resim
Offline
08-11-2014, 07:47 AM,
#22
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American currency continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the day at 81.52. The pair EUR/USD lost 0.15% at the end of last week due to negative Draghi’s comments. Mario Draghi said that inflation will remain at low levels for a long time and the lending companies rates remain weak for the economic growth recovery. The CPI decreased to the level of 0.4% in July.



Bank of England showed no surprise – the monetary policy will remain the same. However, after the meeting bears rushed into the market there was a decrease in the GBP/USD quotations. Traders understand that in the current environment a strong British currency against its major "trading partners" carries risks for the economy as a whole and in particular for the inflation and endanger the earlier-than-expected first increase in the discount rate. The positive macroeconomic data from the United States just added optimism to bears.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The European Central Bank decision was in the range of forecasts - the Eurozone regulator has not announced any changes in the parameters of monetary instruments. M. Draghi’s press conference has not brought no surprises either.

The sellers failed to break below the support level of 1.3345 three times, from which the current price is corrected upward. It should be noted that last week approach to the support level of 1.3345 occurred against the background of high volume.

The price is finding the support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3280. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is changing the course. We believe the price will grow. The first growth target is 1.3420, the next one 1.3480.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The pound also fell against the dollar, but unlike the euro it did not show no new lows. The last week main event was the BoE’s announcement for monetary policy prospects. The meeting did not bring surprises, everything was according to the forecasts. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, and fund the purchase of bonds in the amount of 375 billion pounds.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6770, the next one is at 1.6700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6840, the next one is at 1.6900.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the price to continue falling. We expect it to reach 1.6700 soon where we expect a bounce upwards to 1.6840.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The pair got the support from a small increase Japanese stock market indices growth, they returned to their original positions that had provoked the fall of the American government bond yields. News from Europe could not have affected the instrument.

The price pullback to the resistance level of 102.25 is a good signal for the continuation of the downtrend. The bounce allowed sellers to test the strong support 101.75

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price resumed the downward movement. The price will decline to 101.60 first.

resim

Frank (CHF)

General Overview

The frank strengthened a bit its position in the growing demand for safe assets because of the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the east of Ukraine, and also after President Barack Obama authorized the point strikes on Islamist militants in Iraq, if they threaten American interests in the country.

The activity production index increased in July to 54.3 points, surpassing its long-term average value of 54.0, according to data prepared by Credit Suisse.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9030, the next one is at 0.8990. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.

Trading recommendation

The trend has been changed. The price is heading downwards. The first target is 0.9030. Shall the price consolidate at that level it will go further down to 0.8990.

resim

resim
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08-12-2014, 05:45 AM, (This post was last modified: 08-12-2014, 05:51 AM by ValdisTF.)
#23
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD closed the trading day with the quotations growth on short positions profit taking. The macroeconomic statistics showed a mixed background - the German trade balance indicator came out worse than the forecasted medians while the France industrial production release gave the market a pleasant surprise, showing an increase to the level of 1.3%. The market was full of the euro short positions as traders fully played this technical oversold in the last days.

The UK trade balance negative report cheered the bears for opening the GBP/USD "shorts". The June deficit has increased which is directly related to the British pound strong rate against the dollar and the euro. Against this backdrop, investors dumped the pound.

The BoJ, at its next meeting, signaled to market participants about the Japanese manufacturer's hard times. This negative process impacts on the export process and directly affects the economic growth rate. However, the monetary regulator refused the possibility of short term stimulus volume increasing again. Against this background, we observed sales in the Japanese stock market and the USD/JPY in the first half of the day.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro grew slightly against the dollar. Probably after the marks test near the level of 1.3300/20 which the pair visited last time 9 months ago and therefore became the strong psychological support, some investors decided to close the euro short positions and take profit in a geopolitical situation tense. The euro area economy data which could impact the euro were not published besides the Germany trade surplus report that slightly disappointed the market as its result wasn’t good.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The 1.3460 and 1.3485 marks are important strong resistance. These marks retest is more likely to lead to the price bounce down and the bearish trend further continuation.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General overview

If investors see that the BoE in no hurry with the monetary option strengthening the pound will continue falling. The pound may find a support after the employment reports that are going to be published this week, the forecasts suggest the labor market improvement and the unemployment decrease.

The UK GDP second estimate publication is likely to keep in force the previous results and, most likely, will not stimulate a volatility increase, unless we do not have deviations. The break of 1.6810 support was at high volume - that proves the sellers growing strength. In the future, we expect the weekly support level of 1.6710 - 1.6700 testing

The price is finding the first support at 1.6770, the next one is at 1.6700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6840, the next one is at 1.6900.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The weekly support level of 1.6710 - 1.6700 has kicked sellers upwards two times. This level retest is more likely to lead to a consolidation.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen is still in multidirectional movements against the dollar and closed trading at opening prices. The pair was turned up under the pressure as the BoJ meeting results has not announced any changes and the Japan stock market collapse where the Nikkei fell by almost 3%. The "bulls" support for the dollar was seen during the American session when the States stock markets showed the opposite to the Japanese one sentiment - the indices have grown, the market debt price fell.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect a short-term growth at the beginning of this week. The potential growth target is the strong resistance level of 102.60.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar/franc will be traded in the lower range, under the pressure from deteriorating relationship to the dollar and the market demand for the Swiss currency on the pair. The reduction potential is limited by the growing Swiss currency in the EUR/CHF and the Swiss National Bank soft monetary policy

The price is finding the first support at 0.9030, the next one is at 0.8990. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.

Trading recommendations

We recommend the short positions with the first target - 0.9030. After consolidating below the first target, the next target will be the level of 0.8990.

resim

resim
Offline
08-15-2014, 01:07 PM,
#24
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

After several days of silence the Forex market showed a burst of volatility on major pairs. The EUR/USD bears still cannot take the support level of 1.3332 despite the negative macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. The main currency pair is still trading in the mid-range and market participants are saving effort to further the market down.

The GBP/USD fell after the USA macroeconomic publications. The UK unemployment dropped to 6.4%. The Bank of England inflation minutes began on a positive note - the monetary regulator increased its estimate of economic growth in 2014 and 2015. Mark Carney said that the Central Bank expected the wages reduction to 1.25% from 2.5%. It was also noticed that the strong pound limits export growth.

The Japan's GDP for the second quarter showed a decrease of 6.8%, which coincided with the expectations of market participants. The non-state sector consumption in Japan has decreased by 5%. The Bank of Japan noted in its last minutes that they expect the tax burden increasing negative effect weakening. This factor, combined with a growth in the world's leading stock markets supported the demand for pair.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The single European currency showed a multidirectional movement against the dollar and finished the day with small losses. The latest statistics pressed the euro, the only thing that supported the pair was the news from the United States that showed a weak sales in the retail trade.

The second week in a row a strong support level of 1.3340 does not let sellers to come.

The support is at 1.3360. The resistance is at 1.3420.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect a rebound, the potential target is the downtrend channel upper boundary 1.3390. The maximum growth target is a strong resistance level of 1.3430

resim

Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British pound was the main loser among all majors at yesterday's session. Sterling fell against the dollar, having lost more than 120 points. The cable fell because of the weak reports: the employment grew, but at the same time, salary growth leaves much to be desired - the average wage in the UK in April-June increased by only 0.6% instead of the expected 0.75%.

BoE’s statements poured "fuel to the fire", they say that the interest rates growth will largely depend on the acceleration of wage growth.

Sellers managed to break below the key support level 1.6710 - 1.6700. The downward trend is expected to be continued, but before that we are likely to see a short-term pullback to the resistance level 1.6700 - 1.6710.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6570. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6700, the next one is at 1.6770.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair tends to decrease. The potential target is 1.6640.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese yen fell against the dollar. The economic data showed a sharp drop in GDP in the second quarter, still the risk appetite growth on the stock markets in Japan and the United pressured the Japanese currency more. When the weak retail sales in the United States yen rose sharply, but could not keep the trend and very soon came back under pressure.

Negative GDP Japanese yen directly affected the dollar strengthening. Due to the growth of the dollar buyers were able to get out of the descending channel, breaking up the upper bound of 102.30.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.60, the next one is at 102.60.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are neutral. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect a rebound down. The potential target rebound is a strong support level of 101.60.

If the pair continues growing it will reach the marks 102.70, 103.00 in a short term.

resim

Frank (CHF)

General Overview

Swiss Franc returned most of the ground it had lost the other day. The unexpectedly weak the USA retail sales pressured the dollar. In July, the main figure was 0.0% vs. 0.2% and 0.2% in June. The retail sales excluding autos rose 0.1% against 0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9030. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.

Trading recommendations

We recommend short positions with the first target - 0.9030. The second target is the level 0.9000.

resim

resim
Offline
08-17-2014, 10:28 PM,
#25
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD could not set a fresh low despite the negative France, Germany and the Eurozone GDP. Economic growth in Germany fell on the background of geopolitics which intervened in the German economy. However, market participants have ignored the weak releases, the euro/dollar managed to strengthen to 1.3407 against the Initial Jobless Claims growth in the United States. However, the bulls growth mostly was not strong enough in the second half of the American trading session, and the euro returned to the previous range.

After the "bear rally" the GBP/USD was within a narrow range. In the absence of important macroeconomic releases from the UK and the USA - sellers have decided to take a pause to evaluate the British currency medium-term downtrend prospects.

Moderate demand for risky assets gave little support the USD/JPY pair. However, the decline of the American dollar against its major counterparts along the entire market (USDX) cooled bulls. The machinery and equipment orders release which came out worse than the median forecast, having shown an increase to the level of 8.8%, instead of the expected 15.5%. This report is a leading industrial production indicator and as we see it is difficult to count on the strong growth of the Japanese industry.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The euro/dollar behavior was unexpected enough last week. The Eurozone newsflow did not have anything interesting and has not made any impression on the market, at the same time the weak United States employment release caused a sharp euro growth.

The instrument was trading without any changes. Despite the fact that the main trend is bearish, sellers can not break below 1.3340 strong support level for a long time.

The support is at 1.3360. The resistance is at 1.3420.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

It is possible that sellers will try again today to test the mark of 1.3340 strength. And if they break it, we expect a confident continuation of the bearish trend. The decrease potential is the mark 1.3280

Still we should not exclude and growth possibility. The pair looks like going to correct to 1.3450.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British pound continued falling against the dollar. Obviously, the inflation report and M.Karni’s performance were the main drivers for the pair. After these events the market concluded that the key rate would remain low much longer than expected. To return some loss the pound could after the weak State's economy data release and due to technical levels which showed a strong support.

The second part of the previous week the pair spent in a consolidation at the support level 1.6675. The bounce upwards from this level was not supported by volumes. The current trend remains bearish.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6570. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6700, the next one is at 1.6770.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The level 1.6675 break will allow sellers to reach the support level located at the level of 1.6570.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The dollar/yen trading was marked by multi-directional maneuvers session and fell by the end of trading. The yen can get the support from optimism in the Japan stock market. We do not expect important news from Japan and the yen will remain under the influence of risk appetite and, as usual, the USA economy news.

The third week volumes have been shown a correctional growth rates weakening from the support level 101.75.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.60, the next one is at 102.90.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are turning down.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is descending.

Trading recommendations

The price bounced down. The correction has been preparing for several weeks it will be continued to 102.23 and 102.

resim

Frank (CHF)

General Overview

The dollar weakened after the United States Labor Department reported that the number of initial jobless claims increased by 21,000 to 311,000 from a revised 290,000 the previous week.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.8970. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9030, the next one is at 0.9060.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen directed downwards. The Cloud is descending.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.

Trading recommendations

We recommend short position with the first target - 0.9000. After reaching the first target we believe the price to go deeper to 0.8985.

resim

resim
Offline
08-19-2014, 04:47 AM,
#26
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The main competitors of the dollar could regain some lost ground last week. The EUR/USD used the moderately negative macroeconomic statistics from the United States and finished the day up 0.25%. The Michigan Institute consumer confidence came out worse than the forecasted median, at 79.2, showing the minimum value over the past 8 months.

It should be noted that the final index fell below 12-month moving average which may signal a slowdown in the American economy. The July retail sales release also confirms this factor. Nevertheless, the current situation in Europe is much more negative and think about the downtrend change is too early.

The GBP/USD is within a narrow range and even the weak consumer confidence release from the United States could not cheer the bulls to open long positions. Bears reliably keep the current level and this factor indicates a set of short positions by institutional investors, and in the near future is expected to be continued downward.

Investors take profits on long positions in the world's leading stock market which put pressure on the USD/JPY. The USA consumer confidence came out worse than market expectations that together with the yields fall on 10-year Treasuries have caused the dollar demand for.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

Euro fell against the dollar a bit the last trading day. Probably the traders’ sentiment that was formed after the euro area disappointing GDP data for has already been taken into consideration and short-term investors have used data from the United States to take profit. In addition, technical factors presented by a strong support could stimulate the closing of euro short positions.

Eight day consolidation on the historical support level 1.3360 which was formed 2013.11.07, was followed by the price rebound upwards.

The support is at 1.3360. The resistance is at 1.3420.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance level of 1.3485 retest is more likely to lead to a short-term consolidation.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British pound has been "trodden" in one place and closed against the dollar on the opening prices. Investors have not been impressed by the fact that the second GDP estimate for the 2nd quarter was revised upwards to 3.2% y/y from 3.1% y/y.

The price broke the level of 1.6710 at high volumes. After the support level break down the price shows a weak volatility.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6700, the next one is at 1.6640. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6770, the next one is at 1.6840.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the resistance level of 1.6770 retest. After that the price will bounce down to continue the further bearish trend to 1.6640.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The dollar/yen is slowly growing up having finished the day with positive results. The reason for the buying was weak USA economy releases which caused the US government bonds growth which consequently reduced their profitability.

The buyers tested for strength the strong resistance level of 102.65 second time over the past three weeks. This mark is an insurmountable barrier which has been bounced buyers down for six months.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.60, the next one is at 102.90.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The Cloud is neutral.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is descending.

Trading recommendations

To continue the uptrend the bulls need to update the maximum of the previous month - 103.08. In this case, the price is expected to go to 103.90 - 104.00

resim

Frank (CHF)

General Overview

Index assessment of the economic situation over the last year has grown to seven compared to the first quarter (5). The consumers' opinion about a successful time for large purchases has been improved, that is proved by the corresponding index increase from 1 in the previous quarter to 8. Nevertheless, the Swiss noted the deterioration of its financial position for the last time during the second quarter which resulted as the reduction of the corresponding index to -7 from the previous value -5.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9030, the next one is at 0.9000. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen directed downwards. The Cloud is descending.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.

Trading recommendations

We still recommend going short. The mark 0 9030 is the first goal. After overcoming the first target the price can go to 0.9000.

resim

resim
Offline
08-26-2014, 08:10 AM, (This post was last modified: 08-26-2014, 08:11 AM by ValdisTF.)
#27
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American currency continued to strengthen against its major competitors on Friday - the dollar index (USDX) finished the last week at 82.32. The EUR/USD lost 0.3% amid the USA Fed Chairman comments in Jackson Hole. Janet Yellen said that the continued faster-than-expected employment growth may lead to an earlier federal funds rate increase. It was enough for the bears to push the EUR/USD rate to 1.3320, where traders began to fix the profits. The pair EUR/USD continued to fall on Monday trading.

The GBP/USD was traded in a narrow range of 1.6560 -1.6600. The market participants took a break to evaluate the pound downward trend prospects which we have seen the last 7 trading weeks. Even the Federal Reserve Chief’s speech on economic symposium in Jackson Hole could not push traders to an active trading.

The USD/JPY continued to grow to new maximums after a small technical correction. The bulls have responded positively to the Janet Yellen’s statement about the monetary policy possible earlier than expected tightening. The American dollar was in demand and the price reached the level of 104.20, then investors decided to take some profits on long positions. The pair slightly fell on Monday.


resim

Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)

General overview


The European Central Bank head supported the idea of the euro further weakening his statements. Draghi’s speech was "dovish". He said that the ECB June easing measures should spur the demand, a weaker euro would support the economy and the European regulator was ready to the policy further softening if necessary.

The price three-week consolidation above the strong support level of 1.3360 was followed by a confirmed breakthrough. The sellers managed not only to break below 1.3360, but also to consolidate under the resistance level of 1.3290. The price updated the current month minimums on the increased volume during the President Draghi’s speech.

The price is finding the support at 1.3170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.3170 soon.

resim

Pound(GBP)

General overview

The British pound was steady against the dollar and closed the session almost at opening prices. There were not any thing interesting from the newsflow, the pound was under the external information influence and the most important driver for the market could be the technical factors presented by the strong support. The British pound trading has been continuing in the narrow downward channel direction for the second month.

The dollar confirmed strengthening against the GBP has been stopped at the support level of 1.6570, which came at a reduced price volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect a bounce upwards. The upward bounce potential target is 1.6640.

resim



Yen (JPY)

General Overview


After the central bankers symposium, the dollar/yen has taken another upward jump, but has been stopped by the strong resistance levels, which resulted in a relatively small increase in the dollar against the yen on the Friday trading basis. This was the bulls’ week final point where the main driver was the Fed’s minutes publication, showing the growth in the policy tightening sentiments in the USA Central Bank leadership.

The resistance level of 102.60 has been an obstacle for buyers during six months, despite the fact that it has made its way up twice. The third level breakthrough, apparently, was the signal for the medium-term uptrend continuation.

The level of 102.65 breakthrough up comes amid low volumes, this allowed the bulls to raise the price to the historical resistance level of 103.90 - 104.00 formed from 2014.04.03.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 104.00. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 104.35.

resim

Frank (CHF)

General overview

Today the debt crisis problem has receded, but the economic recovery stop in the eurozone by the end of the second quarter and the ECB promise to keep rates low for a long time do not allow the SNB to abandon the restrictions on the foreign exchange market. In Zuercher Kantonalbank believe that the Switzerland's central bank is limited in decision-making till the ECB will not start raising rates.

The franc also fell against the background of the dollar comprehensive strengthening. The dollar strengthened significantly after The Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said that the United States economy was recovering, and added that the situation in the labor market had been also improved.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9210.

resim


resim
Offline
08-27-2014, 06:01 AM, (This post was last modified: 08-27-2014, 09:33 PM by ValdisTF.)
#28
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The single European currency has collapsed on Monday to the next local minimum against the dollar. The political and the Eurozone economy news did not give the "bulls" any chance for the euro recovery. The reason that caused another euro fall against the dollar could be the M. Draghi’s statements reporting about the possible monetary policy easing next phase beginning. In addition, the Ifo Institute Germany business sentiment report led to the market disappointments where the indicators had recorded the results lower and weaker than expected.


The British pound also opened the week lower against the dollar, but then it was able to return to the previous week levels. Obviously, this fact - the first lost sterling positions return occurred because of the GBP/USD strong technical supports and the absence of disappointing news where the last statistic wasn’t published due to the non-working day.


The yen continues to strengthen against the dollar on the optimism fall in the Japan stock market which may continue if the data on the State's economy do not offer the arguments to buy the pair.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market opening occurred with a gap (the price break). At the time the gap has not been worked out. The short-term price consolidation above the support level of 1.3170 will lead to the price bounce upwards, followed by the price gap overlap.

The gap closing will allow the buyers to correct the price to the downtrend channel upper bound 1.3230. The downward channel upper bound retest is more likely to be followed by the price bounce downward.

The price is finding the support at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3130. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.3170 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.3130 will be opened.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound cannot break above the resistance level of 1.6570 for the fourth day. The consolidation below is followed by the sales volumes decrease which suggests the possible price bounce downward.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward one. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.6640, 1.6700. The approach to these lines may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6500.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The two weeks American dollar growth has been stopped at the resistance level of 104.35. The level formed the correctional wave, enabling the sellers to break below the support level of 103.70.

The level of 104.00 testing comes amid the low volumes. The pullback has no any special support from the sellers. And, apparently, the dollar decline against the Japanese yen will be stopped at the next support level of 103.70.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The downward trend line 103.70 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 104.35 growth.

resim

Frank (CHF)

General overview

The dollar could not continue to grow. It was traded at level of 0.9160 which is below the Asian max, while the down side fluctuations were limited by the support level of 0.9130.

While the pair is trading above the broken resistance level of 0.9090, the further growth and the 92nd figure testing possibility remain high. The 91st figure loss will weaken the "bullish" impulse and may lead to the fall to 0.9000.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 0.9210.

resim

resim
Offline
08-28-2014, 08:28 AM,
#29
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at around 82.67. The EUR/USD remained under the pressure on the background of the United States positive macroeconomic data. The July durable goods orders release showed 22.6% increase which provides a strong private consumption solid foundation in the current quarter. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board also has pleased the market participants and a good report on this background pushed the euro/dollar to the level of 1.3165. The pair was returned above this level.

The GBP/USD amid the lack of interesting reports publication consolidated in a narrow range. However, as soon as the market participants got a pleasant surprise from the United States on the durable goods orders and the consumer confidence index - the sellers began actively selling the GBP/USD, based on the continued United States economy strong growth in this year 3rd quarter.

The stock index S & P500 storms all new maximums, followed by the Japanese stock market stretching and it all ends with the positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States on the durable goods orders. Against this background, we saw the bullish sentiment on the USD/JPY. The traders are still positive about the American dollar prospects and redeem any USD/JPY quotations decrease.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency is still the pressure. The euro selling has been resumed that can be caused by the sufficiently strong United States economy data. However, it seems not the only the euro weakening factor, it is possible that the investors are beginning to prepare for the euro zone inflation release which will be published later this week and the forecasts predict the further consumer price index reduction.

The sellers did not manage to break below the support level of 1.3170. The level breakthrough was followed by the relatively weak price reduction continuation amid the lower volumes.

The price is finding the support at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3130 The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The trend is directed downwards. We expect the level of 1.3170 touching soon.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound also fell against the dollar, but new minimums were not tested. Like the euro, the pound has increased pressure during the American session following the U.S. economy published data. However, the UK news had a bleak character.

The four day price consolidation above the resistance level of 1.6570 was followed by the price bounce downward. The bouncing was followed by the background of the increased volume and fell to the minimum - 1.6545.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6570 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6500 will be opened.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar/yen spent the yesterday trading in the differently directed movement. The investors bought the yen amid the falling Japan stock market and then it was sold under the United States economy good data influence.

The Japanese currency was traded against the dollar within a narrow range. The historical resistance level of 104.00 was tested. Because the fact that the testing occurred at the lower volumes, the buyers did not manage to consolidate above the level of 104.00.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 104.00, 104.35.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Eurozone economy recovery has been stopped forces the SNB to maintain measures to curb the national currency growth against the euro. Today, the debt crisis problem has been receded, but the economic recovery stop by the end of the second quarter and the ECB promise to keep rates low for a long time do not allow the SNB to abandon the restrictions on the foreign exchange market.

The dollar was stable against other major currencies after the United States consumer confidence upbeat data release and the controversial durable goods orders report.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 0.9210.

resim

resim
Offline
09-01-2014, 01:28 AM,
#30
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The market is quite. The major pairs showed a further side correction during which the dollar slightly fell against the euro and the pound and also got slightly stronger to the yen. The State's economy supported the dollar, still it had a minimal impact on the market. Clearly, the investors are waiting for the stronger drivers that may appear from the United States labor data this week.

There was a more strong States economic recovery in the 2nd quarter - the GDP growth was revised from + 4.2% q/q, instead of the reducing to 3.8% q/q, while the previous calculations showed to + 3.9% q/q, the secondary housing market sales signed contracts number in July rose more than expected, showing +3.3% m/m, with expectations to see +0.6% m/m, and the initial claims number fell to 298 thousand last week, while the forecast expected about 300 thousand.

We expect the U.S. July costs and incomes data and the Chicago activity reports. The demand indicators, which are ranked as costs and incomes are forecasted to be expected with a continued +0.2% m/m and +0.3% m/m growth respectively, which indicates the stable consumer activity, and the August Chicago PMI index with the rise to 56.3 from 52.6 previously. These results are the positive indicators for the dollar and can support it.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The Eurozone economy reports have put a pressure on the European single currency which lowered the euro/dollar. The reason for this disappointment came from Germany and the European Commission studies on the European bloc economy sentiment.

The buyers finally managed to close the price gap. Once the gap was closed, the price immediately dropped to the support level of 1.3130.

The price is finding the support at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3070 The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3230.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.3070 soon.

resim

Pound (GBP)

The pound/dollar continues to trade near the strong technical levels reached by the "bearish" trend. The UK economy news was favorable for the pound – the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported the August strong sales growth, the indicator rose to 37 from 21, while it was expected to rise only 27.

The continuous price consolidation occurs in the downward channel direction. As the resistance level of 1.6640 is not broken, the potential downtrend remains in force.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6570 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6500 will be opened.

resim

Yen (JPY)

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar. Obviously, the stock market and the technical resistance levels weakness favor the profit-taking on the instrument. In addition, the pressure on the dollar could be strengthened by the exporters selling.

There has been the support level of 103.70 retest. In the light of the high-volume the sellers tried to break below the level, but the test was followed by the price false bounce up.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 104.00, the next one is level of 104.35.

resim

Franc (CHF)

The dollar strengthened after the preliminary data showed that the United States domestic product gross was increased by 4.2% in the second quarter, exceeding the growth expectations of 3.9%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price decreases we advise to short with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9090. If the price grows we advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9210.

resim

resim



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