"fort Financial Services"- Fundamental And Technical Analysis

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10-01-2015, 05:50 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD has strengthened amid the carry trade transactions closure, which contributed to euro demand as a funding currency. The euro area data came out worse than expected. The Germany import prices fell by 1.5% in August against 0.7% in previous month. The Spain CPI decreased by 0.9% this month, with forecast decrease of 0.6%. All day the trades focused on the sale. This contributed to the fact that the price of the European currency has gone down.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the UK government bond yields decrease in relation to the US and Germany counterparts. The number of permits issued for mortgage lending increased by 2 thousand in August reaching 71.03 thousand, despite the fact that the July indicator was 69.01 thousand. The new loans net amount, issued to individuals, amounted to 4.3 billion pounds against the upwardly revised 4.0 billion in July. The September CBI retail sales balance jumped from 24 to 49 (it was forecasted 29). However, the pound was under pressure the whole day and finished it with a decrease.

The world leading stock markets sales supported the demand for the Japanese yen, which caused the pair USD/JPY quotations decrease. The Japanese indicators are quite disappointing: the August industrial production fell by 0.5% against the growth expectations by 1.0%. Now the annual decline is 0.9%. The August retail sales growth was only 0.8% at an annual rate against the expected 1.1% y/y and it amounted 1.6% y/y in July. Against this background, the pair closed the trading with a decrease, despite the fact that in the first half of the day, the price a little bit grown up.

The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release from ADP. The data came higher than expected 194 thousand. The number of new employees amounted to 200 thousand.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The lending increase has been observed in the European banking sector for the last six months. Still the current levels are still low enough for the inflationary pressure increase. The world leading stock exchanges negative sentiment will contribute to the pair EUR/USD gradual decline as the shares sales will support the demand for the euro as a funding currency.

All day trades were on a decrease. The price rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1260 to the support level of 1.1150 and did not even test it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1050 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0925.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National Statistical Office has published the second quarter payments. The data was better than expected -16.8 billion with forecast of -22.3 billion. The Germany and the UK government bond yields may support the pound for a short time. The consumer confidence strong data was published in favor of the US currency, which confirms the US economic growth high rate.

The pound/dollar keeps weak downward movement. After the level of 1.5200 test, the pair took a southern direction, having fixed above the level of 1.5100 by the end of trading.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100. The way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened after this breakthrough.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

We expected the retail sales positive data output. The PMI production sector growth indicates the industrial production increase. However the data came out worse then forecasted 1,0% at the level of 0,8%. The world leading stock exchanges negative dynamics will contribute to demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

Trades started with bulls’ trend. However, in the second part of the trades, the bears took away the price from resistance level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.40.

resim

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

resim
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10-02-2015, 05:36 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency has strengthened, but against some of its competitors, it weakened. The dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 96.48. According to the ADP, the US main event is the September number of jobs in the private sector. The index caused optimism in the stock exchanges and its increase amounted 200 thousand against the expected 192 thousand. The US manufacturing sector is showing rather bad results - the Chicago manufacturing sector business activity index decreased from 54.4 to 48.7 in September while it was expected 53.2. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 10 thousand having grown to 277 thousand.

The pair EUR/USD had decreased after the September Eurozone CPI negative release. The number of unemployed in Germany increased by two thousand and the euro area overall unemployment rate grew from 10.9% to 11.0%. The September consumer price index preliminary assessment fell by 0.1% y/y vs. 0.0%, the core CPI remained at the previous level of 0.9% y/y. During the day, the pair showed a decrease, with a price slight correction upward by the end of trading.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trading day with the price decrease amid the US employment positive publication. In addition, the British GDP has remained at the level of 0.7% the 2nd quarter, still the annual rate was revised downwards from 2.6% to 2.4%. By the end of trading, the pound managed to slightly increase against the dollar.

The world demand for the "risky assets" has supported the pair USD/JPY. By the end of the day, the instrument decreased.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

During the past month to 52.3 from 52.5 previously fixed, the business activity index fell in the manufacturing sector in Germany. Economists expected the index over the past month would remain unchanged at 52.5. Moreover, the German paper show a decrease in the bond market, the yield to US and British colleagues. Against this background, the attractiveness of investments in the assets of the EU reduced.

On Thursday, the pair at reducing tested support level of 1.1150. However, in the second half of the day the price took a northern direction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.1050. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.0925.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The “black gold” pressures the pound. Previously, the US Energy Department reported about the crude oil and gasoline increase, which is a negative factor for the Brent quotations. We remind, that oil inventories showed an increase of 3.955 million. barrels with forecast of 0.102 million. The industrial business activity index amounted to 51.5 points in September while everybody expected an increase to 51.3 points; the previous value was revised from 51.5 points to 51.6

The pair is trading in a flat between the levels of 1.5200 and 1.5100. The instrument closed with a decrease by the end of the trading day.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened after this breakthrough.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen remained under pressure after the Japanese Tankan mixed corporate sentiment data. The Japan and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a bullish factor for the dollar. Meanwhile, we expected the ISM manufacturing sector positive data: 50.6 against the previous 51.1. In addition, the number of initial jobless claims totaled 277K against the previous 267K, still the market expected 270K.

The pair shows a trade in a flat between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20. by the end of the day the pair slightly decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 119.20 and 118.40

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Switzerland August retail sales fell by 0.3% against the growth forecast by 0.3% after the previous 0.1. Then, the August retail sales rose up by 0.5% m / m. The Switzerland business activity index fell to 49.5 in September from the previous 52.2. The US number of initial jobless claims was expected 270K vs. 267K while it amounted 277K.

The price broke through the resistance level of 0.9750 and the price steadily fixed above this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 0.9850 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 0.9960.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

resim
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10-04-2015, 05:33 PM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the major pairs were in the flat. Fears for the industrial sector state have been intensified even more in the US. The September manufacturing sector business activity index (ISM Manufacturing PMI) came out worse than the forecast: 50.2 against 50.8 and 51.1 in August. The number of jobless claims increased from 267K to 277K.

By the end of the week the pair EUR/USD had decreased. The euro zone manufacturing sector business activity final assessment remained unchanged at the level of 52.0 in September and the auctions, designed for placing the Spain and France 10-year government bonds have decreased: from 2.15% to 1.84% in Spain, from 1.21% to 0.98% in France.

The pair GBP/USD finished the week with the growth amid the British government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts.

The pair USD/JPY closed the Friday with the growth despite the carry trade transactions closure in the US trading session.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The September US labor market publication was the last week key event. Given the fact that the euro CPI once again is approaching the deflationary area, traders have no other choice but to buy the US currency. The Germany government bond yields decreased in the debt market amid the US and the UK counterparts which is also a negative factor for the euro.

The price was not able to continue the upward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement. The Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The southern movement may be continued. Shall the price go below the support 1.1150 it may reach the level 1.1050 soon.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The unemployment decrease and the UK average earnings growth triggered the strong demand for mortgage loans at the end of August. The UK government bond yields are growing relative to their American and German competitors that increases the British assets investments’ attractiveness. The market expected quite positive the US Labor market data. In fact the data was inverse. The figures were worse than our expectations.

The pound continues its weak downward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. Shall the pair break the level of 1.5100 the way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The stock markets instability supported the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The capital movement report in the Tokyo stock market again showed the bond demand increase. The Japan and the US government bond yields are declining that also reduces the US assets investments’ attractiveness. We expected to see the US labor market moderately positive data.

The price is again correcting.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 119.20 and 118.40

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

As usual, the CFTC published the franc number of net speculative positions. As economists expected the September number of jobs rose by 203,000 in the US and according to the ADP data. The employment high rate will allow the Fed to raise interest rates this year which will cause the dollar growth.

The pair resumed its upward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The first resistance is at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9880.

There is a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The growth is stopped. We believe the pair will fall to 0.9650 first. Having overcome this level the price might go to 0.9540.

resim

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

resim
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10-06-2015, 04:42 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Friday US Labor data came out worse than traders expected. The September Nonfarm payrolls amounted 142 thousand while the August indicator was revised into the negative side. The average hourly earnings remained unchanged at the level of 25.09 dollars an hour. The market reacted with the dollar decrease to the news that the rate hike is postponed. Investors have reduced the October increase expectations by 6% and the probability of the December increase to 28%. Indeed, now the market is expecting the first quarter rate increase next year.

As a result, the pair EUR/USD finished the trades at the mark of 1.1180. At the beginning of the week investors study the August Eurozone retail sales, the forecast was -0.1%.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trades at the mark of 1. 5150. Investors' attention is directed to the September service sector business activity index and its forecast was 6.4 against the August 55.6.

The pair USD/JPY closed the trades at the mark of 120.50. The Markit service sector business activity index was expected with a growth from 5.6 to 55.7 in the September final assessment, the non-manufacturing sector business activity index (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) was expected with decrease from 59.0 to 58.0.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The moderately positive background was formed for the single European currency. The Germany and the US government bond yields are decreasing which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. In addition, we expected the ISM service sector business climate negative release amid the private sector employment weak data which also weakens the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The price will be falling if it remains under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the price is returned to the southern movement. Shall the price go below the support 1.1150 it will decrease to the level 1.1050.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The credit markets’ trend is in favor of the British currency: the UK and the US negative 10-year government bond yields fell by 8.6 bp at the end of the last week. The oil market bullish sentiments will put pressure on the dollar as the energy cost is denominated in the US currency. The pound continues its downward movement having fallen yesterday by the trades end.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. Shall the pair break the level of 1.5100 the way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

Despite the US labor market negative data the Japanese yen was unable to consolidate below the 119 figure - the pair has strong buyers who push the quotations upwards. However, the weak employment figures led to the Treasury short term bond yields significant increase which signals that the Fed will not raise rates until the end of the year.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The direction has been changed. The pair returned to a growth. Our first target is 121.60.

resim

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

resim
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10-07-2015, 06:21 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency was able to compensate some of the lost positions yesterday. Still the dollar was not able to hold the growing pace and fell. – the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 96.25. The US Markit Economics service sector business activity final assessment had been reduced: 55.1 versus 55.6. The non-manufacturing sector business activity national index (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) showed decline from 59.0 to 56.9.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased. The euro area macro-economic data came out worse than expected. The September euro area business activity evaluation index turned out to 53.7 against 54.0 of the initial assessment and the unchanged forecast. The August euro area retail sales showed the zero growth against the forecast of -0.1%.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the quotations growth. The UK service sector PMI report turned out to be negative. The UK service sector business activity fell from 55.6 to 53.3 in September (the lowest index over the last two years) against the growth forecast to 56.4.

The USD/JPY had increased amid the leading world stock markets growth. Still the price turned down by the end of the day.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

This trading week started with "risk appetite" growth in the "green zone" among the world leading stock indices as well as the high-yield cross-rates. The euro might get be under pressure as a funding currency. In contrast, the Debt Market is signaling about the moderate demand for European assets: the US and the Germany 10-year government bond yields have been declining for two trading days in a row.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

We do not have s clear signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. We shall wait the pair to leave the Cloud to see the direction to trade .

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat right now. The direction is not determined. The EUR/USD may go any way. The first growth target is the level of 1.1325. Shall the pair decrease it might go to 1.1150.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

Yesterday the UK 10-year government bond yields grew relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. In addition, the commodity market is in the "green zone": the oil and industrial metals enjoyed steady demand yesterday which is a negative factor for the dollar as the raw materials cost was denominated in the US currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The sell signal is weak as the price entered the Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement is slowed down while the price is in the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price started a correction.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5100 for a steady decrease. Shall the pair break the level of 1.5100 the way to the mark 1.4975 will be opened. Meanwhile we see a growth dynamics. If the GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 the growth will be continued. The target is the level 1.5300.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The carry trade trades grew amid pessimism that the US interest rates will be changed this year. That face reduces the "safe haven" yen investments’ attractiveness. On the other hand, the United States continues to disappoint traders with the negative macroeconomic statistics. The ISM service sector index was 56.9% in September, thus having fallen below the annual average.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows horizontal one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing the level of 121.60 will be the first target.

resim

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

resim
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10-08-2015, 05:26 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The last trading session macroeconomic statistics played an insignificant role. Perhaps even such political events such as the twelve countries agreement about the Trans-Pacific Partnership, led by the US, had little impact on the exchange rates. In general, the Asian stock markets showed the positive trend. Perhaps the market was once again subjected to speculative pressure amid the overall uncertainty.

The pair EUR/USD finished the trading day with the quotations growth amid the US August trade balance weak data. With forecast -47.40B, in fact trade balance turned out to be -48.33B. The Germany August industrial orders have fallen by 1.8% and the July indicator was revised downwards to -2.2% from -1.4%. The Eurozone retail sector business activity increased from 51.4 to 51.9 in September. The complex of these factors influenced the quotations for the euro/dollar, which showed a decrease during trading day.

The GBP/USD pair had increased amid the Brent oil quotations rapid growth. The UK Halifax house prices index fell in September by 0.9% against the growth forecast by 0.1%. The pair continued its rapid upward movement.

During the day, the pair USD/JPY was trading in the narrow flat amid the "risky assets" moderate demand. The US August trade balance showed deficit of -48.3 billion dollars against -47.6 billion dollars forecast. This has contributed to the weakening of the dollar against the yen, which is shown by trading on the decrease throughout the day.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the US and the Germany 10-year government bond yields decline in credit market that reduces the European assets investments’ attractiveness. The US bond market still cannot come down from the weak employment data. The German 10-year government bond yields are growing in relation to their UK counterparts which has a positive effect on the pair EUR GBP in general and on the single European currency in particular.

During the day bears managed to return the pair below level of 1.1260. The price shows correctional southern movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

We still do not have a clear signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. We shall wait the pair to leave the Cloud to see the direction to trade further.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is in a flat.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat right now. The first growth target is the level of 1.1260. Shall the pair decrease it might go to 1.1150.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The debt and commodity markets’ dynamics is now clearly on the "bulls" side. In addition, the data on the volume of production in the manufacturing industry has been released. The data was 0.2% better than expected, accounting for 0.5%. The UK and the US government bond yields have been declining for five consecutive trading days, which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Yesterday the Brent crude oil reached the level of $ 50/barrel, which will put pressure on the dollar.

The pair continues the rapid movement north. Bulls managed to break the resistance level of 1.5300, and if the bears will not take the initiative, the price will continue to rise.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The sell signal is weak as the price entered the Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement is slowed down while the price is in the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price started a correction.

Trading recommendations

The growth dynamics is slowed down. If the GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 the growth will be continued. The target is the level 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to 1.5200 first.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The main event of the day was the Bank of Japan meeting results publication. Mr. Kuroda said that the Bank of Japan's policy is aimed at the exchange rate rather than price. Also, the chief of a Japanese bank noted sustained recovery of the US economy. At the end of the third quarter the Japanese 10 year government bond yields, which reflects investors' expectations about inflation, has fallen by 11.4 bp and now it has been at its lowest level for the last 5 months. Yesterday the US and the Japan government bond yields showed the minimal changes which does not allow to conclude demand for the US or Japanese assets.

The price of the instrument shows the spiral corrective movement. During the day there was bear trend, which is shown by trades on decrease in the corridor 120.40 and 119.20 levels.

The price started its correctional movement.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal one.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing the level of 121.60 will be the first target. Shall the USD/JPY decrease it will go to 119.20.

resim

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

resim
Offline
10-09-2015, 05:21 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency tried to strengthen against its major competitors – the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 95.65. Investors' attention is directed to the US Labor Ministry jobless claims weekly report. The forecast was 274K vs. 277K the previous week. The index showed 263K.

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the Germany and the US government bond yields increase. The Germany industrial production negative indicators were published and left the euro no chance for the expected correction continuation. The August German Industrial Production fell by 1.2% against the growth expectations by 0.3%. During the day, the pair showed mixed trading, maintaining the upward movement.

The pair GBP/USD had increased amid the August UK industrial production strong data. The UK macroeconomic indicators were even better than expected and the British pound continued to rise. Industrial production showed growth by 1.0% vs. 0.3%. Investors are studying the Bank of England last meeting minutes. Mr. Carney said that inflation remains below 1% until the spring of 2016. The pound/dollar continues to show north course.

The pair USD/JPY closed the trading day with the quotations decrease amid the demand increase for the "risky assets". The foreign markets power and the Bank of England neutral rhetoric are not sufficient for the USD/JPY growth when the Japanese economic indicators decline. The own negative Japanese data turned out to be stronger. The pair is in flat, against a background of weak southern movement.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German 10-year government bond yields are decreasing relative to their US and the UK counterparts, which reduce the investments’ attractiveness into the European assets. In addition, the demand for higher-yielding stocks and cross-rates puts pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The United States presented a number of initial jobless claims for August. With forecast 274K, it turned out of 263K. The Fed also published its meeting minutes. It says the majority considers that the conditions for the rate increase will be achieved before the end of the year

The price is trying to continue its upward movement. Despite different directions of trading, the pair managed to break the resistance level of 1.1260 and continues to grow.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1325, the next one is at 1.1410.

The pair left the Cloud. We have a confirmed and strong buy signal The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The EUR/USD will grow until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is in a growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing now. The first target is the level of 1.1325. The next target is the level of 1.1410.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency can use the demand amid the UK government bond yields relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The whole week we see the US and the UK 10-year government bond yields in the debt market which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Investors' attention is directed to the Fed meeting minutes and the US labor market publication.

The pound exchange rate continued its upward movement. In the first half of the day, bears dragged the pair under the level of 1.5300, but later bulls managed to return the price above this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

We have a weak buy signal as the price has just left the Cloud. If it remains above the Cloud the signal will get stronger. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 that increases its growth potential. The target is the level 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5200.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

Now the credit markets dynamics is on the "bulls’ side": the US and Japan government bond yields are declining which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. Demand for the risky assets is increasing. The high-yield currency cross rates were in demand among investors which indicates the carry trade operations increase and will put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price is still correcting.

The price continues corrective movement trading in the corridor between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20 against the background of weak southern movement.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing the level of 121.60 will be the first target. Shall the USD/JPY decrease it will go to 119.20.

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Economic Affairs State Secretariat data (SECO) showed that the Switzerland unemployment rate rose in September in line with the economists' expectations. The seasonally corrected unemployment rate rose up to 3.4 % from 3.3 % in August. The uncorrected unemployment rate remained unchanged at the level of 3.2 %. Last year the indicator was 3 % in August. Meanwhile, the US jobless claims report was published. With forecast 274K, it turned out of 263K.

The price broke through the support level of 0.9750 and the price steadily fixed below this mark, already have tested the level of 0.9650.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 0.9540 first.

resim


*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Offline
10-11-2015, 03:34 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last week the US dollar strengthened its position against its major counterparts amid the US 10-year government bond yields strong growth against its Germany, UK and Japan counterparts. Still then investors have begun to actively sell the US currency. According to the last FOMC meeting minutes the monetary authorities are afraid to raise the interest rates because of the US low inflation and the global economy slowdown. The labor market significant increase was noted not for the first time.

As a result, the EUR/USD trades ended the week at the mark of 1.1358. The reports that indicate that the global economy is experiencing difficulties put again pressure on the euro. The Germany trade balance results have not met our forecasts - the surplus was much worse, showing reduction up to 15.3 billion euros against the July 25.4 billion euros when it was expected to see 19.0 billion euros.

The GBP/USD ended its trades at the mark of 1.5308. The Bank of England meeting results have put strong pressure on the "cable". There was not anything surprising in the BoE decision - the interest rate remained at the level of 0.5%, still the Central Bank purchases fund amounted to 375 billion pounds.

The pair USD/JPY finished at the mark of 120.25. The price remained in the narrow side range and the day result was marked by a very slight advantage in favor of the yen.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US and the Germany government bond yields grew at the end of the last week which increased the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets and contributed to the dollar demand. The “bullish” sentiment prevailed in the European and North American stock markets which is also a positive factor for the US dollar. International investors are still inclined to the "risk appetite" which puts pressure on the euro as a funding currency.

The price continued its upward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The EUR/USD will grow until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing, the target is the level of 1.1410 now.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

At the moment the British currency is left without drivers for the quotations growth. Perhaps the inflation will remain below 1% until the spring of 2016. The inflation slowdown causes traditionally pressure on the Forex market national currency. In addition, the UK 10-year government bond yields showed a decrease in relation to their US and Germany counterparts after the MPC minutes publication.

The pound exchange rate continues its upward movement and almost reached the last resistance level.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The first resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

We have a confirmed and strong buy though the price has just left the Cloud. If it remains above the Cloud the signal will get stronger. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The GBP/USD remains above 1.5200 that increases its growth potential. If the pair holds there it may grow to the level 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5200.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

Macroeconomic statistics caused the US and the Japan government bond yields increase which shall support the demand for the US currency. Moderate demand for the "risky assets" will contribute to the carry trade operations increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency which will also have a positive impact on the pair USD/JPY.

The pair remains in the corridor between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud still it does not mean that a decrease is over. The USD/JPY is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 119.20 will be tested soon. Still the level of 121.60 remains the first target for a growth.

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

The CFTC published the weekly report showing the number of net speculative positions within the franc: -2.7K earlier, this week index was 4K. Investors focused on the US three-day summit results which began last week Friday.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 0.9540 first. The second sell target is the level of 0.9370.

resim


*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Offline
10-13-2015, 05:19 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

At the beginning of the week the macroeconomic background is once again in the dollar favor. As for the investors’ escape into the euro while the Chinese data is deteriorating, it may happen only when we have shock events or when the investors escape from the carry trade market.

The pair euro/dollar has increased. The French August industrial production showed growth by 1.6% against the growth expectations by 0.6%. Investors, however, ignored the French budget deficit decline to -87.7 billion euros against -79.8 billion in July and the Italian industrial production decline by 0.5% - while it was expected 0.3%.

The pair GBP/USD remained in a flat. The UK August trade deficit was 11.1 billion pounds against -10.0 billion and the previous indicator declined to -11.1 billion from -12.2 billion pounds. The UK construction sector fell by 4.3% against the growth expectations by 1.0%.

The dollar/yen was in a flat the whole Monday. The September import price index correction (-0.1% vs. -0.5%) and the wholesale inventories increase to the predicted level of 0.1% in August slightly supported the dollar.

The week started Japanese, the USA and Canadian holidays. The political component of the day was the Fed representatives Charles Evans and Lael Brainard's speeches. Evans supports the interest rate hike this year, Brainard is not inclined to raise the rates this year.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Monday economic calendar was empty, the US and Canada have holidays, the trading volumes are very small. The political component of the day was the Federal Reserve members’ speeches. According to the Bank of France, the French August current account balance surplus was 200 million euros against the deficit of 400 million euros in July. The August services trade surplus was 900 million euros against the deficit of 100 million euros in July. The US August trade deficit amounted to 1.1 million euros against 900 million euros in July.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The EUR/USD will grow until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing, the target is the level of 1.1410 now. A short-term bounce down to the level of 1.1325 is possible.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The market intensified rumors about the ECB readiness to postpone and to extend the QE program. According to Mario Draghi, the quantitative easing program works better than expected, still the inflation will likely fail to achieve the target with certain periods set by the indicator. The main reason is the "bearish" oil trend. The UK CB leading indicators remained unchanged: -0.3% m/m. Investors drew their attention to the UK employment report.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The first resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

We have a confirmed and strong buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. If the pair remains above the Cloud the signal will get stronger. The GBP/USD is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The pair will grow until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

Our first target is 1.5390. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5300.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen was stable on Monday amid the limited trading volumes due to the US and the Japanese holidays. This week investors will focus their attention on the US Wednesday retail sales and the Thursday consumer prices are in search of fresh indications for the consumer spending strength. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan shall publish the Monetary Policy Committee last meeting minutes.

The pair remains in the corridor between the levels of 120.40 and 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud still it does not mean that a decrease is over. The USD/JPY is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The pair is in a flat.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat. The direction is uncertain. The first growth target is the level of 120.40. The decrease one is 119.20.

resim


*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Offline
10-14-2015, 05:27 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The first half of the week showed calm trades. There was not published any important macroeconomic statistics. The Japan and the US banks have not worked because of the public holidays which caused the liquidity decrease and the players’ low activity.

As a result, the euro stayed in a flat, the British pound rose up by 29 points on Monday, still this growth was stopped by the weak Chinese trade balance data and the pair fell. The USD/JPY has decreased.

The US dollar has fallen amid the market expectations decrease about the rate growth in 2015. The New York Federal Reserve Bank president William Dudley even said about the probable negative rate introduction in case of a crisis. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank governor Dennis Lockhart spoke about the possible December increase. Still, the oil significant decrease can pressure the currencies quotes that are against the US dollar.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Eurozone faces the deflation threat. The September CPI preliminary data showed the negative value at the level of 0.2%. The quotations showed a growth in the Asian equity markets the day before as well as the high-yield cross-rates growth which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1325, the next one is 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410. The price started its weak correction.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat, still our main target is the level of 1.1410 now.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

Investors' attention is directed to the September UK inflation report. The UK monetary authorities have repeatedly said about the low inflation level in the medium term. The UK 10-year government bond yields which reflect investors' expectations about the September inflation declined by 19.5 basis points. One of the positive factors for the pound is the July unemployment rate decrease by 0.1%.

The first support is at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The resistance is at the level of 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390. The pound exchange rate continued its correctional movement.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are crossing each other that might be a pivot sign. The pair will keep the growth pace until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD left a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the situation does not change the level of 1.5390 will remain our main target. Shall the pair return to a decrease it will go to the level of 1.5200.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was no important macroeconomic statistics publication; the trades were set by the bond and stock markets. The US and Japanese government bond yields were expanding the whole last week that increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets. The investors' risk appetite is still preserved: the Chinese stock market closed the first half of the week with the quotations growth by 3.29%.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now. The USD/JPY is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is in a flat. The direction is uncertain. The first growth target is the level of 120.40. The decrease target is 119.20.

resim

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

resim
Offline
10-15-2015, 05:46 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD finished the trades with the quotations growth amid the Germany and the US government bond yields decline. Earlier the euro decreased after the weak German business confidence index – the October indicator fell from 12.1 to 1.9 against expectations of 6.8. The European ZEW index fell to the forecasted value of 30.1 from 3.3 in September. Against this background, the pair continued upward movement.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD fell after the UK September disappointing inflation data. A small storm rolled across the UK market. The September consumer price index (CPI) fell down to deflation at an annual rate: -0.1% y/y. This is the first inflation negative annual rate for the last 55 years. The base Index (Core CPI) remained at the level of 1.0% vs. 1.1%. Retail prices declined from 1.1% y/y to 0.8% y/y (forecast 1.0% y/y). Even house prices have not changed: 5.2% y/y against expectations of 5.5% y/y. At the last trading day, the pair sharply gained weight.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trades with the quotations decline amid the "bearish" sentiment in the global equity markets. The retail sales in United States, which was 0.1%, which is below the expected 0.2%, also contributed to the decrease of the pair.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ZEW institute weak release confirms investors' concerns about the leading euro-zone economy deflationary scenarios development. Meanwhile, the bond market is supporting the euro bulls: the German 10-year government bond yields are increasing relative to their US and the UK counterparts which increase the investments’ attractiveness into the European assets.

Bulls managed to break through the resistance level of 1.1410, but it is unknown if they are able to retain and develop this success.

The first support is at the level of 1.1410, the second one is at the level of 1.1325. The resistance is at the level of 1.1530, the next one is at the level of 1.1590. The price resumed its upward movement.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair left the flat range and having passed the first target the level of 1.1410 rushed to the next stop – 1.1530.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound continues to show the downward trend. The inflation weak data disappointed investors and against this background, the pound is showing its weakness in relation to its main competitors. The currency market has been still expecting for the recent weeks that the Bank of England will raise the interest rates in the first half of 2016. Now, these expectations were completely leveled and investors begin to revise their forecasts.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pound rate continued its upward correctional movement.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The pair will keep its growth until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD left a positive territory. The histogram returned to a growth.

Trading recommendations

The price keeps growing. We expect a short term rebound downwards, to the level 1.5460 where we believe the pair will return to the growth. It is good opportunity to long from this point. Our growth targets are the levels of 1.5550 and 1.5670.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The debt market dynamics confirms the demand for the US assets. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a positive factor for the dollar. The US currency is supported by the commodity market sales. The oil and industrial metals finished the day in the negative area that traditionally has a positive impact on the dollar quotations.

The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is 117.80. The resistance is at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now and the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair seems to set its direction. If the course remains unchanged we will see the pair at the level of 118.40. Otherwise it will return above the 120.40.

resim

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

resim
Offline
10-16-2015, 06:21 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The dollar came under a sales wave in relation to its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.19. After the Chinese inflation and the subsequent US retail sales weak data investors strengthened the opinion that even the December Fed rate hike would not take place. In addition, the US Labor Department published the initial jobless claims number which turned out 255K. It is better than forecasted 270K.

The pair EUR/USD finished the trades with a growth amid the US PPI September negative release. The Eurozone industrial production fell by 0.5% vs. -0.4% in August, but the overall dollar decline pulled the euro upwards. However, the pair showed a decrease last trading day.

By the end of the day, the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK August labor market positive data. The August unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to 5.4%, the last three months average salary has increased not by forecasted 3.1%, but still by good value of 3.0%. In the morning, there was a decrease, but in the afternoon, the situation has been leveled off.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trades with the decline amid the "investors risk appetite reduction." At the same time the yen does not have any internal support factors. The September engineering equipment orders volume fell to the preliminary estimates from 16.5% y/y to 19.1% y/y, the September producer price index fell to -3.6% y/y to -3.9% y/y while the new Japanese government once again confirmed that the QE increase would not happen. The US manufacturing index which showed a decrease-4.5 instead of forecast -1.0, also affected the pair.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Investors closed the carry trade deals which support the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The two–year US Treasury bond yields, which reflect the investors’ expectations about the Fed interest rate, are declining which deprives the dollar support. Moreover, the US and the Germany government bond yields greatly reduced on Wednesday which will contribute to the demand for the euro. Now the commodity market dynamics is not on the bulls side: the oil and industrial metals quotations reduction has been stopped which is a positive factor for the US currency competitors.

The pair showed multidirectional trades yesterday. The pair was falling the whole day and stopped at the American session. The pair lost 120 points and stopped at 1.3800.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530. The price resumed its upward movement.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows horizontal movement, and the Kijun-sen is directed upwards. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still inclined to grow. Shall the pair keep growing it will reach the level of 1.1530 soon. The decrease target is at the level of 1.1325.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics Office pointed out to the unemployment reduction by 0.1% to the level of 5.4% and the average earnings increase based on premiums by 0.1%. On the other hand, the US reported about the PPI decline by 1.1% compared to the same period of 2014, which indicates the consumer prices decline. As a result, the US and the UK 10- year government bond yields began to back down.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pound exchange rate resumed its upward trend.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal, the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed upwards and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stooped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5500 the growth will be continued. Otherwise it can return to 1.5390.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency has been in demand for the last three trading days in a row amid the investors’ escape from the "risky assets". The global stock markets positions closure contributes to the yen quotations growth as a funding currency. The US inflation release shall support the demand for the "risky assets". The number of the US jobless claims was expected 270K against the previous 263.

The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is 117.80. The resistance is at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. The price completed the third support level and was not able to breakthrough it.

There is a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now and the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the course remains unchanged we will see the pair at the level of 118.40. Otherwise it will return above the 120.40.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US employment weak economic data have reduced the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve soon will raise the interest rates that fact led to the stocks’ increase. It also became known that the retail sales fell by 1.1% in annual terms after the August decline by 0.8%.

The pair continued its downward movement and broke through the support level of 0.9540 and firmly fixed below this mark, we do not see any correction signs.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9420, the next one is 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9650.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The first target is the level of 0.9420, the second one is 0.9370.

resim

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

resim
Offline
10-19-2015, 12:09 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency was able to compensate some of the lost positions – the dollar basket index (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.43. The US dollar found the support due to the stronger-than-expected US inflation report which showed a decrease to 255K against the previous 262K.

The pair EUR/USD finished the trades with a decline. The ECB representative Ewald Nowotny said that the ECB did not reach the inflation target. The regulator requires a new set of instruments. The euro zone released the September consumer price index and declared about the August trade balance changes, which turned out to be lower then expected – 11.2B against forecasted 20B. During the day, the pair was in a flat.

The pair GBP/USD had strengthened amid the EUR/GBP quotations reduction by the end of the day.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trades with a growth amid the US and Japanese government bond yields. According to the preliminary data the US Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index was higher than expected and amounted to 92.1 against forecasted 89.0. The NAHB October housing market index was published alongside with the vacancies level and the August labor turnover.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the debt market began to form a reversal pattern for the German and the US Treasuries 10-year bond yields. This trend continuation will increase a demand for the US assets. We cannot ignore the "investors’ risk appetite" growth. The traders’ attention is directed the US industrial production and consumer confidence publications.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. That is possible “Dead Cross” formation. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price started its correction, still it intends to grow. If the growth is continued the EUR/USD will reach the level of 1.1530 soon. The decrease target is at the level of 1.1325.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

Yesterday the US and the UK government bond yields increased in the debt market. Moreover, the US crude oil inventories publication supported the US currency. The traders’ attention is focused on the US industrial production report.

The pound continued its upward movement, beforehand it had corrected to the level of 1.5421.

The first support is at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the second one is at 1.5550. The pound upward trend is stopped; the pair began a consolidation phase.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stooped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 the growth will be continued. Otherwise it can return below the level of 1.5390.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US and the Japanese moderate bond yields increased in the credit market which increases the US assets investments’ attractiveness. The Nasdaq high-tech index was the growth leader in the US stock market that indicates the interest growth for the risky assets. That is traditionally a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Meanwhile, investors are studying the US September industrial production release.

The USD/JPY started an upward corrective movement. The price managed to break the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now and the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen is directed downwards. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the course remains unchanged we will see the pair at the level of 118.40. Otherwise it will return above the 120.40.

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar strengthened positions after the US Labor Department reported that the number of initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 255,000 from 262,000 the previous week. The US Commerce Department reported that the consumer prices fell by 0.2% last month that is in line with the expectations. Investors drew attention to the US industrial production report and to the consumer sentiment that is in search for economic recovery additional signs.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9420, the next one is 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9650.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The first target is the level of 0.9420, the second one is 0.9370.

resim

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

resim
Offline
10-20-2015, 04:57 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The China GDP better-than-expected data decreased fears related to the fact that the Chinese economy may experience a hard decrease and pull the world economy down. Investors paid more attention to the GDP macroeconomic indicator and the European stock market trading wave started on the positive note as the US dollar is supported against the euro.

The market is awaiting whether the ECB begins to extend the existing measures in September to support the economy. The bears dominated at the market yesterday, the pair EUR/USD was decreasing the whole day.

The British economy positive development still allows "bulls" to keep the currency in the area of the earlier reached highs.

The Chinese positive news supports the US bond yields, which markedly fell last month amid the sharp expectations reduction, concerning the US rate hike. However, the yen is trading without any changes. The USD/JPY is in a flat now.

Relative to the US dollar, the Australian dollar is growing due to the quotations growth after the Chinese Statistics publication.


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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro positions look vulnerable amid the ECB upcoming meeting. The Governing Council member Benoit Ker said that the regulator was not going to solve any other issue besides the mentioned earlier. Meanwhile expectations regarding the quantitative easing program correction are increasing. The last Bloomberg survey showed that the number of respondents who expect the stimulating measures package to be to expanded, increased from 68% to 81%.

The pair is showing a downward correction. The decrease was stopped at the level of 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. We have a “Dead Cross” signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The correction is in progress. If the pair keeps falling we expect the level of 1.1260 to be reach soon. We believe the pair is under pressure till the ECB meeting.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound gained strong impulse last week after the UK labor market report which showed that the unemployment rate had fallen to the seven years minimum. The technical analysis gives a neutral forecast, still the bullish scenario is the preferred one. The UK Thursday retail sales report is in focus now. The report is expected to show a growth since August.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stopped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. Otherwise, it can return below the level of 1.5390.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar is declining against the yen after a consolidation at the end of the previous two sessions. The dollar is waiting for the further consolidation period and can begin to rebuild its positions. The pair is still in the range and its movements to the lower bound are used as an opportunity to enter the market. However, bulls still face the lack of strong growth drivers: the Japanese investors’ activity continued to support the pair, but the yield spreads dynamics does not give cause for optimism.

The USD/JPY started an upward corrective movement. The price managed to break the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and the Chinkou Span now. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair grows it will grow to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.

resim

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

resim
Offline
10-21-2015, 05:09 AM,
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro is still under pressure in the run-up to the ECB meeting. After the ECB meeting, the investors will wait for the Fed meeting results which will be held on October 27-28. The Fed officials give contradictory comments: some of them speak about the need to raise the interest rates this year, some of them want to change the rate when the USA economy is more stable and strong.

At the beginning of the week the pound was able to increase slightly amid the UK government bond yields growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor’ speech supported the pound. McCafferty said that the rake hike was necessary and the hike would be gradual.

The pair USD/JPY is showing symbolic growth amid the moderate demand for the "risky assets" which put pressure on the Japanese yen as the funding currency. Also, investors’ attention is paid to the US API crude oil and the number of building permits publication.

The Australian Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Council last meeting (October 6) minutes noted that there was a correct decision to leave the rates unchanged at the October meeting. The Australian dollar decline supports the system balance change in favor of escape from the extractive economic nature.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The greenback continued to pressure its main competitors first half of the week - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.97. The US dollar is supported by the US API crude oil reserves and the building permits number. The single European currency is still under pressure in the run-up to the ECB meeting.

The pair is showing a downward correction. The decrease was stopped at the level of 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. We have a “Dead Cross” signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps falling we expect the level of 1.1260 to be reach soon. Shall the EUR/USD return to the growth it will go to the level 1.1410.

resim

Pound

General overview

The pound supports the UK government bond yields growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor’s speech affected the pair. The GBP/USD grew to 1.55 after his speech. McCafferty confirmed his plans to change the rate. According to McCafferty the lending companies term have been improved.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. The growth target is the level of 1.5550. Shall the pair return below the level it will go to 1.5390.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The JPY market short positions are still at the low level despite the fact that the expectations concerning the Bank of Japan monetary policy easing increased compared with the previous month.

Technical indicators are neutral and point to the side dynamics continuation. The pair is between two levels: 119.20 and 120.40.
The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40a. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak buy signal as the price has just left the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

resim



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