"fort Financial Services"- Fundamental And Technical Analysis

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09-02-2014, 07:07 AM, (This post was last modified: 09-02-2014, 07:08 AM by ValdisTF.)
#31
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar became the market leader - the dollar index basket (USDX) is at around 82.73. The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the weak Eurozone data. The Germany and Spain July retail sales were significantly decreased which together with the CPI decrease to 0.3% y/y has caused the euro sales. A deflationary threat still hangs over the Eurozone and therefore the traders wait for the ECB decisive actions on September 4.

The bulls once again tried to attack the level of 1.6602 on the GBP/USD, but once again the bears successfully repulsed the attack. After the Institute of Michigan revised data publication we saw strong pound selling. The consumer confidence index rose to 82.5 in August, which is a positive signal for the economy, now it is possible to expect the personal consumption growth.

The Japan macroeconomic statistics disappointed the foreign exchange market participants - in addition to the CPI decrease, the same household spending fell sharply by 5.9% in July which is extremely negative for the economy’s growth. In this regard, we observed the Japanese yen weakening and the USD/JPY price growth which at the moment reaches 104.10. The Japan's economy after the April 1 sales tax rates increase shows a sharp slowdown while the United States showed a steady growth over the same period which caused the bullish trend continuation.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The single currency broke the resistance level of 1.3170 last week and fell to the support level of 1.3130 where started trading this week. The short-term level tests have allowed the buyers to close the price gap.

The level of 1.3170 five day retest led to the price bounce down and the further dollar strengthening. The downward trend continued amid the low volumes.

The price is finding the support at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3070. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3230.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair is back to the ‘Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.3070 testing soon.

resim

Pound (GBP)

The pound trading continues in the downward channel direction for the second month. In the short term, the USD strengthening against the GBP has been stopped at the support level of 1.6570. The temporary break which occurred last week was followed by the correctional price growth up to the downward trend line 1.6640

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.6640 retest may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6500.

resim

Yen (JPY)

The resistance level of 104.00 first break wasn’t long. The buyers has broken the historical resistance for the second time and fixed above. The dollar strengthening against the Japanese yen occurred amid the lower volumes. Despite the fact that the upward trend is gradually fizzles out, the resistance level of 104.00 break up in the longer term indicates the bullish trend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 104.00, the next one is at 103.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.35, the next one is at 104.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 104.35. After breaking 104.35 the buyers may go to 104.80.

resim

Franc (CHF)

The franc continued to decrease against the dollar strengthening. The American currency has strengthened its position after the United States solid economic publication.

The data showed that the United States consumer confidence index rose to 92.4 in August, compared with 90.3 in July. It has been the highest level since October 2007.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair is back to the “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9240.

resim

resim
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09-03-2014, 05:10 AM,
#32
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The pairs spent week beginning within the small ranges amid the United States banking output the EUR/USD was held in the horizontal flat market 1.3118 -1.3145 amid the empty macroeconomic calendar day. Traders are ready to test the 312 figure, but don’t hurry to take positions before the ECB meeting, scheduled for Thursday, September 4th.

The UK manufacturing sector PMI release disappointed the investors. The August resulting value was 52.5 while the index is below the 12-month average for two months in a row which is a negative signal for the production sector. We observed the GBP/USD price growth before the report publication, but then the investors were selling the British currency.

The bulls keep the USD/JPY situation under control. Now almost nothing threatens the upward trend and against this background we observe the price increase even on an empty macroeconomic calendar. As the importers do not prevent such a scenario - then their risks are hedged and they are also ready for the upward trend.


resim

Euro (EUR)

The volumes divergence indicates the downward trend weakening. But they haven’t reported about the trend reversal up signals. The euro decrease against the American dollar is in the downward channel which is the price movement benchmark.

In addition, the trading goes below the last week minimum - the resistance level of 1.3170. This level is a strong resistance on the buyers’ way.

The price is finding the support at 1.3070. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3170.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The pair is back to the “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a directed down. We believe the pair will move to 1.3070 soon.

resim

Pound (GBP)

The pound made an attempt to rise against the dollar at the beginning of this week. Earlier this week, the market sentiment was on the sterling side which probably wad due to the technical factors and some policy tightening strengthening expectations by the Bank of England.

The buyers managed to come to the resistance level of 1.6640. This growth happened amid the negative GBP fundamental data. Then the sellers managed to break through the support level of 1.6570 and to reduce the price to the support level of 1.6500.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6500, the next one is at 1.6440. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6640.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.6440.

resim

Yen (JPY)

The Japanese yen dropped against the dollar and as the result recorded a loss. The historic resistance level of 104.80 did not stop the American dollar growth against the Japanese yen. The small downward correction was followed by the confirmed uptrend continuation.

The dollar strengthening has allowed the buyers to break above the strong resistance levels of 104.35 and 104.80.

The price is finding the first support at 104.80, the next one is at 104.35. The price is finding the first resistance at 105.20, the next one is at 105.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 105.60.

resim

Franc (CHF)

The dollar gained on the euro weakness and the Asian markets rise which have kept the investors demand for the yen refuge.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair is back to the “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9240. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9300.

resim

resim
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09-04-2014, 08:38 AM,
#33
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American currency has strengthened its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day around 82.99, the first time since July 2013. However, the EUR/USD has been in a horizontal flat for the third trading day in a row, despite the United States positive macroeconomic data. The traders do not hurry to open positions before the European monetary control meeting and against this background we observe the range trading.


The GBP/USD has ignored the UK strong construction sector business activity release and tested the 65 figure after the ISM manufacturing sphere positive data publication. The ISM index came in at 59 which is the highest level since April 2011. This release supports the positive forecast for the 3rd quarter in the United States economy and against the UK manufacturing sector weakness we observed the massive pound sell-off along the entire market.


The bulls were able to take the 105 figure on the USD/JPY. We observed the large number of the activated stop orders in the Asian session which brought the pair to the strong level of 104.80. However, we did not see the stop amid a corporate bonds strong demand in the Japanese stock market so the growth was continued amid the United States manufacturing sector business activity positive macroeconomic statistics release. The pair slightly fell at the end of the trading day.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The euro showed stability against the dollar and ended the day on the opening price. Obviously the strong technical levels and the uncertainty about the rate results expectations from the ECB meeting which ends on Thursday supported the European currency. However during the afternoon trading the euro was under the pressure and the euro/dollar fell even to the new daily low.

The buyers broke through the downtrend channel upper bound at the level of 1.3130. Thus, the price is out of the downtrend channel that limits indicates the corrective rally up formation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3070. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3230.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.3170, 1.3230.

resim

Pound (GBP)

The British pound has fallen against the dollar and lost about 140 points. The main reason for such pessimism was the increased rumors about the possible the Scotland separation from the UK.

The pulse rates decrease is happened after the level of 1.6570 breakthrough. Such a strong price fall occurred amid the GBP positive fundamental release.

The trading volumes support a downward trend. Bears are very strong now.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6440, the next one is at 1.6370. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6500, the next one is at 1.6570.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Death Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.6370.

resim

Yen (JPY)

The Japanese yen also as the pound fell solidly against the dollar. After the four months sleep the dollar actively strengthens against the Japanese yen. The two month growth happened amid the low volumes and the pair reached the historic resistance level of 105.20 formed from 2013.12.30. Then the pair slightly fell.

The price is finding the first support at 104.80, the next one is at 104.35. The price is finding the first resistance at 105.20, the next one is at 105.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 104.60 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 104.35.

resim

Franc (CHF)

The Swiss Franc slightly strengthened against the dollar. The dollar held near 14-month high to the major currencies basket due to the good United States economic statistics and the US bond yields growth.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9240.

resim


Fort Financial Services - Citadel of Trading

resim
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09-05-2014, 10:29 AM, (This post was last modified: 09-05-2014, 10:30 AM by ValdisTF.)
#34
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD enjoyed a moderate demand from the traders the other day despite the weak macroeconomic data from the Eurozone. The August service sector PMI final data was revised down to the level of 53.1. The retail sales also showed a decline of -0.4%, which indicates a lack of consumer confidence in the region. However, the euro/dollar was growing moderately, as willing to sell at the low levels has been very little. Nevertheless after the ECB’s decision to reduce the interest rate the pair fell to the new minimums.


The GBP/USD ignores the positive macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom. The services PMI rose to the level of 60.5, which is the highest level in the last 10 months. However, we have not seen a strong demand for the pound - at the moment the price reached the level of 1.6496 and the bulls’ impulse for the growth was over. As we do not see the GBP/USD growth- there are strong sellers in the market. The pair also fell after the EBC’s decisions announcement.


After a long upward trend – the investors are taking profits in the USD/JPY. It should also be noted that the "longs" closing also happened in the United States and Japan stock markets which also inspired the bears to the short-term short positions opening. No important macroeconomic statistics has not been published and the sales were of a purely technical nature.


resim

Euro (EUR)

The euro came under the dual influence. The markets negative sentiment provides a weak economic data from the euro zone and the risk appetite - a possible transition to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine peacekeeping phase. As a result, the single currency spent the day in multidirectional trade before the ECB’s meeting. After the decision to reduce the interest rate the euro fell.

Two days price consolidation was followed by a slight increase. Then the pair decreased to a new min.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 0.2850 soon.

resim

Pound (GBP)

The British economy good data maintained the sterling for a very short time. The attempt to start the GBP/USD growth quickly stopped after the statistics indicated the British services field activity growth rate efforts. The market participants were waiting for the ECB’s meeting results.

More recently, the historical level of 1.6485 formed from 2014.03.21, was a sufficiently great support. But after the ECB announced that they decided to reduce the interest rate the pound significantly fell.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6270. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6440, the next one is at 1.6500.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Death Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is going down.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.6440 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6270.

resim

Yen (JPY)

The yen strengthened slightly against the dollar. Obviously, the technical levels and the Bank of Japan rate outcome expectations became a deterrent to the USD/JPY growth. The Japanese regulator did not change anything and confirmed the economy optimistic assessment, despite the slowdown in the economic activity, after the sales tax increase in April. This decision has no effect on the market, the dollar/yen was traded in a narrow range. As for the future, it is likely that the calmness will last until the European Central Bank decisions and the USA economy data which can give fresh guidelines for the trading.

The American dollar is testing the historical resistance level 105.20 strength.

The price is finding the first support at 104.80, the next one is at 104.35. The price is finding the first resistance at 105.20, the next one is at 105.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 104.35. We do not exclude the growth to 105.70.

resim

Franc (CHF)

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar. There were not any national macrostatistics, so the first rate dynamics was formed by the United States Statistics. The United States labor market continues to slow the growth, but the changes in wages and the price pressures are not seen. The pair rose sharply after the ECB meeting.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9300. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.

resim

resim
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09-07-2014, 10:38 PM,
#35
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The ECB’s surprise supported the dollar as the US currency strengthened the confidence on all fronts. The market was surprised that the European regulator not only lowered all the key interest rates, but also announced the securities buying that, in fact, is the quantitative easing.

As a result the dollar rose against the euro by 200 points and against the pound over 140 points. The dispute with the yen was also positive for the dollar, but in this case, it seems to have been largely driven by the United States good economic data. As the presented statistics, the United States trade deficit was narrowed in July, instead of the expected increase to -42.5 billion it recorded -40.6 billion dollars, while the initial jobless claims rose, but not significantly, only to 302 thousand against the expectations to see 300 thousand and ADP private sector employment dynamics reports which noted the increase on 204 thousand with expectations of 215 thousand which was quite a positive result.

The positive news came from the Supply Management Institute, the USA non-manufacturing sector activity report in August - the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 59.6 from 58.7 in July. Despite the fact that some indicators fell short, it did not carry negative moments for the dollar and did not stop it from the market leadership, as indicator values reflect the high levels.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The ECB's monetary policy publication fell off the euro last week. The prime lending rate was reduced to 0.05% from 0.15% and the bank deposit rate to -0.2% from -0.1%. We observed the single currency massive selling. M. Draghi’s words that the ECB will launch the asset-backed private sector securities buying round weakened the euro positions.

The single currency has lost 230 points against the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. The potential downtrend targets are the support levels: 1.2930, 1.2850. The level of 1.2850 retest may lead to a price rebound upward.

resim

Pound (GBP)

The British pound also fell against the dollar. The sterling collapse came amid the dollar optimism caused by the ECB decisions. While the British regulator has not changed the main refinancing rate currently at 0.5% and left the bond purchases program in the amount of 375 billion pounds.

The price rapid decrease has led to the 1.6340 downtrend channel lower bound breakthrough. The level break occurred in the context of increased volume which in the longer term indicates the bearish trend continuation.

The price is finding the support at 1.6270. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential downtrend target is the support level of 1.6270.

resim

Yen (JPY)

The Japanese currency also fell against the dollar. However, news about the ECB decision significantly affected the USD/JPY positions. The United States economy good results news and U.S. Treasuries profitability growth supported the dollar.

The USD/JPY has tested the historical resistance level of 105.30 strength. The level retest was followed by the price bounce downward.

The price is finding the first support at 104.80, the next one is at 104.35. The price is finding the first resistance at 105.30, the next one is at 105.70.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations


We suppose the pair will go to 104.80 first. If the price fixates, it may continue the upward trend in the short term.

resim

Franc (CHF)

The Franc suffered losses against the general dollar trend due to expectations that the world's largest economy strengthening signs will allow the Fed to start the monetary policy normalizing process sooner than expected.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9270, the next one is at 0.9210. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9370.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9330. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.

resim

resim
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09-08-2014, 04:16 AM, (This post was last modified: 09-08-2014, 04:17 AM by ValdisTF.)
#36
"Fort Financial Services"

08.09.2014
Offline
09-09-2014, 05:29 AM,
#37
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American currency slightly lost some positions against the background of the moderately negative macroeconomic statistics - the dollar index basket (USDX) ended the last trading week at 83.77.

The EUR/USD trading was within the range of 1.2921 -1.2988. The pair fell at the end of the trading day. The United States labor market release came out ambiguous - the unemployment rate fell to the level of 6.1%, while the non-farm payrolls rose only to the level of 142,000, instead of the expected 226 000. Against this background, the bulls tried to push quotes to the 30 figure, but the bears were able to fight off the level which indicates a strong euro/dollar strong downward trend.

The GBP/USD also remained under the pressure during the day, but some market participants decided to take profits on the short positions after the Non-Farm report which came worse than the forecasted medians, but it didn’t bring any strong dividends to the pound. The pair sharply fell down.

The USD/JPY was able to set the fresh maximum at the level of 105.70 - the bulls started to close the "longs" which caused the strong price decrease. The United States employment macroeconomic statistics increased the downward movement and at the moment the price reached the level of 104.68, but by the end of the trading the bulls were able to restore the lost positions. The pair rose above the level of 105.70.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The euro declined against the dollar at high volumes. Moreover, the general USD majors pairs' correlation is directed towards the dollar strengthening.

The trend line of 1.2980 – 1.3000 break should be highlighted. The sellers were able not only to break down such a strong support, but lowered the price for 240 points down.

The price is finding the support at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.2830 – 1.2850. This level test may lead to a price consolidation.

resim

Pound (GBP)

The last week was a breakdown for the British pound. The sellers managed to break through the two strong support levels located at levels of 1.6440 and 1.6340 at high volumes.

The active dollar strengthening against the GBP led to the descending channel leaving and a gap. In the future, we expect the bearish trend continuation.

The price is finding the support at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The trend is directed down. We expect the level of 1.6100 testing soon.

resim

Yen (JPY)

There was a historical resistance level of 105.70 testing. The price came above this level.

As a rule, the false the strong resistance level testing is a good signal for the upward trend reversal. But as long as the sale proceeds in the uptrend direction, the bullish trend is still strong.

The price is finding the support at 105.70, the next one is at 105.30. The price is finding the resistance at 106.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance level of 105.70 testing is more likely to lead to the consolidation.

resim

Franc (CHF)

The franc partially compensated the loss after the report showed the smaller United States August new jobs increase than analysts expected. This news weakened the expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to interest rates raise sooner than expected.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.

resim

resim
Offline
09-10-2014, 07:11 PM,
#38
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The new week showed the dollar strengthening resumption. Obviously, the emotions caused by the unsatisfactory labor report were forgotten and the dollar continued its rally. There wasn’t any meaningful statistics published, except the Japan news where the second GDP estimate marked the economy reduction and the market is guided by the political impulse component which stimulates the dollar popularity growth.

Another internal region influence factors were added by the Fed and ECB multi-directional policy fact that supports the dollar – the UK increases the Scotland separation probability, Japan showed top management statements disagreement about the fiscal and monetary policies prospects amid the weak economic data.

There was not published any interesting United States statistics. News that is worth attention is the NFIB small business sentiment report. It is assumed that the August optimism index in this area rose to 96.0 from 95.7. These expectations, of course, do not change their sentiment towards the dollar, but at the same time will not add the buying impulse. It is most likely that the dollar will continue strengthening under already formed sentiment influence, but it can interfere with the technical factors, as the American currency look much overbought and majors have come to serious levels of support and resistance.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The American dollar has been actively strengthening against the euro. Obviously, the pessimism caused by the United States employment has gone and the market returned again under the main influence pressure factors - the ECB information about the measures taken to soften the monetary policy. There wasn’t a lot of the euro area economy news. Still the yesterday’s releases were able to support the euro for some time.

The buyers managed to update the last week minimum at the level of 1.2920 and to fix below the level of 1.2930.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.3000. The approach to this line may lead to a price rebound down. The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.2790.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The pound continued its decline against the dollar. The price gap in about 55 points was not closed and the downward trend was continued amid the increased volumes.

The Scotland separation probability gives the uncertainty to the UK economy perspective and gives more assurance that the Bank of England will have to postpone the first rate raise which support the pound demand.

The price is finding the support at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward trend line 1.6180 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 1.6080 decrease.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese yen also fell against the dollar. Probably, the first push for the rally resumption was given by the message that the second GDP estimate in the 2nd quarter recorded an even greater reduction than it was previously stated. Further, the yen could be pushed by the prime minister of Japan economic adviser E. Honda statements who spoke about the new sales tax growth inexpediency which is planned for the next year.

There was the strong resistance level of 105.30 breakthrough.

The continuous trading in the uptrend direction has led to the upper bound at the level of 105.70 breakthrough. The upward trend continues to gain strength.

The price is finding the support at 106.30, the next one is at 105.70. The price is finding the resistance at 106.70.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

Currently, the price is being traded above the resistance level 106.30 which has already become a support. We do not exclude the consolidation.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The Franc strengthened its position despite the fact that the dollar growth on the Fed monetary policy normalization process expectations remains in force.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.

resim

resim
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09-11-2014, 04:51 AM,
#39
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthening stalled at the trading on Wednesday. Another side correction was formed and turned into a slight dollar decrease against European majors. However, early in the day the dollar still managed to test new high. Obviously, the interest decline to the dollar was based on the strong support as well as the UK economic and political news.

The dollar retained a clear advantage in relations with the yen and closed the session with a plus. There were only few news from the U.S., in fact, the attention was attracted by the National Federation of Independent Business report pointed that the August small business owners optimism rose to 96.1 against 95.7 in July, while the forecasts were reduced to a growth to the level of 96.0 which had no effect on the market sentiment.

The United States news set wasn’t rich in the important indicators content - the July wholesale trade inventories data will be published, as the forecasts suggest an increase by 0.5% m/m, after +0.3% m/m. However, the expectations in terms of the most July wholesale trade talking about the activity reducing to 0.2% m/m vs. +0.6% m/m previously which will reduce the growth stocks information gains if they are confirmed by the fact as it indicates to the residual increase due to the reduced demand.

If we talk about the prospects, the correction may well be continued under the technical factors influence and a poor news flow in almost all regions. The only exception is the Britain where we expect for the important political events and therefore it could increase the dollar/pound volatility.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The euro interest rose slightly during the session on Wednesday. The European currency has strengthened against the dollar and almost closed the previous day loss. Obviously, this fact can be related to the technical factors influence as economic and political background for the euro remains negative.

The buyers were able to push the price to last week low - the resistance level of 1.2930. The price went up to this level on the background of the low volumes and the pair bounced downwards.

In the absence of a fundamental factor today the trade may pass amid the low volatility. We expect the EUR/USD to consolidate below the current support level of 1.2930.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued if there is a long-term consolidation below the level of 1.2930. The first target is the level 1.2850, the next one is 1.2790.

resim

Pound (GBP)

The attempts to continue lowering the pound at Tuesday's session had a short term success. The British currency noted a new low against the dollar amid the same questions about the Scottish independence influence, still the pound recorded a very slight plus near the opening prices on the day. The sterling stayed afloat with the UK economic data support and the head of the Bank of England M.Karni’s statement.

The pound downward movement was stopped at the intermediate support level of 1.6100. The two-day consolidation at the level led to the price bounce upwards and came to the resistance level of 1.6180.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation will be above the support level of 1.6180.

resim

Yen (JPY)

The yen continued to fall against the dollar in yesterday's trading and came to the new local minimum. The investors' opinion that the Bank of Japan may supplement the quantitative easing package is the driver for this pair. In addition, a support for the dollar against the yen was resumed by the U.S. "Treasuries" yield growth at the yesterday's session.

The upper bound breakthrough was followed by the price short-term consolidation formation below the support level of 106.30.

The price is finding the support at 106.70, the next one is at 106.30. The price is finding the resistance at 107.10.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 107.10.

resim

Franc (CHF)

The Swiss franc resumed its decline after the recent gains. The dollar index rises on the speculation that this week economic data publication will give additional arguments to the Fed to raise the interest rates next year.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9330. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9430.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9430

resim

resim
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09-12-2014, 05:08 AM,
#40
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

In the news absence the euro/dollar was traded under the technical factors. Faced with resistance, the European currency fell slightly against the dollar. The Eurozone economic indicators were published by few posts, the France industrial production dynamics could not provide the euro support, as it showed the July dramatic slowdown.

The British pound managed to recover after the new low against the dollar touching. The reason for a such events turn can be called the technical factors presented by a strong support that the pair cannot overcome almost three sessions, as well as the Scotland people views variability presented information, where, according to a new pull, where the most people are already on the Scotland separation opponents side. The UK economy statistics was not published and the political day component - the Parliament inflation hearing, didn’t cause the market reaction.

The Japanese currency was the most vulnerable in the foreign exchange market. Obviously, the dollar sentiment, formed under the Fed and BoJ multi-directional monetary policy influence continues to support the dollar/yen. The additional buying interest was given by the observed USA government bond yields increase - the 10-year-old "Treasuries" have reached the highest level since the end of July.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We expect the August Germany and France consumer price index final assessment publication, still no one waits for changes - 0.0% m/m, +0.8% y/y and 0.3% m/m, 0.3% y/y, respectively, that will not activate the market, unless we get unexpected news.

The resistance level of 1.2935 retest was followed by the short-term consolidation. After that, there was the price bounce down amid the high volume. Then the pair came back to the level of 1.2930.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential target is 1.2850. If the price grows it will get to 1.3000.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The BoE speeches reduced to the familiar rhetoric that the interest rate is likely to be raised no earlier than 2015. The UK news set has presented the most interesting information - the August RICS house price balance report showed the appraisers number reduction who expects the price growth in the short time, up to 40% from 48% previously.

Based on the volume which was on the trades closing, the pound clearly intends to continue the correctional price growth up. In addition, it is worth noting the level of 1.6270 testing. The gap was closed.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6270 breakthrough up the way to the resistance level of 1.6340 will be opened.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There is no Japanese economy news for today so the yen continues to fall against the dollar and on the current trading, obviously amid the Japan stock market optimism wave, where the Nikkei has grown by almost 0.8%.

The corrective price decrease to the level of 106.70 was fallowed by the price bounce upwards. However, judging by what amounts were used to the continued American dollar growth against the Japanese yen, it can't be called as the confident uptrend.

The price is finding the support at 106.70, the next one is at 106.30. The price is finding the resistance at 107.10.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen – a horizontal. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 106.30. We believe it will continue growing.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has corrected its fall against the dollar. We expect the initial jobless claims where the average forecast is reduced to 300,000. There also will be the August federal budget report (forecast - $ 129.00 billion.).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.

resim

resim
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09-15-2014, 12:57 PM,
#41
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar instruments multidirectional movement points to the fact that most of the players are waiting for the Fed meeting which will take place this week. Most of the dollar instruments continue to move in the dollar favor, but some major European pairs have stopped falling and are at the previously achieved levels at least. This situation may point to the dollar positions profit close.

The American dollar slightly rose last week. The traders are waiting for the Fed rate increase in the mid-2015.

The initial jobless claims release put some pressure on the dollar, but given the fact that we had the Labor Day the last week, the correction was negligible. It was expected that the claims number will be 300 thousands. The growth amounted to 11 thousand up to the 28 June maximum with 315 thousand claims. The market participants interpreted the data as weekly variations in terms of the labor market situation improving.

The FOMC meeting will be held on September 16-17, during which as expected, the possible interest rates changes will be published. Since March of this year, the Fed says that rates will remain near zero levels for the considerable time after the quantitative easing program end in October this year.


resim

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Recently, the dollar takes a strong position, but we need the truly high retail sales rate to meet the expectations for the monetary policy normalization in the early to mid-2015. The FOMC meeting will be held this week to confirm or refute these assumptions. Also this week, the ECB is launching its new target lending program and a strong demand will be bullish for the euro.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a «Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.2930 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.2850 will be opened. We do not exclude the level of 1.3000 retest.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The sterling found a strong support and was steady against the dollar after the BoE Chairman speech. In his speech, the Chairman presented the Bank's inflation report. The increased pro-independence popularity in recent polls caused some concerns and frightened traders which were forced to sell the pound. The Scottish independence referendum will be held on 18 September.

Based on the volume which was on the trades closing, the pound clearly intends to continue the correctional price growth up. In addition, it is worth noting the level of 1.6270 testing. The gap was closed.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.6340. In this case the gap will be closed. Then the downward trend may be continued.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar continues to receive support through hopes for the Fed meeting on September 17 which is expected to gain an aggressive attitude and to change the strategy intent statements, in particular, in the commentary about the rates conservation at low levels for a long time.

The price is finding the support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the resistance at 107.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 106.70, 106.30.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has corrected its fall against the franc. The Franc corrected against the dollar.

Earlier, the franc fell to the one-year low against the dollar and suffered losses against the euro after the Wall Street Journal announcement that the negative interest rates are one of the options for the Swiss National Bank.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.

resim

resim
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09-16-2014, 02:21 PM,
#42
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American dollar has been growing for nine weeks, showing the longest rise in the last 17 years, due to the Federal Reserve interest rates changing in 2015 while the other major central banks have a more easy monetary policy.

Even taking into account the fact that the last week the dollar did not show the strongest growth, it still was at the top the last three months. We can see the American currency growth potential, especially if this week the Fed surprises the market by the policy tightening. The dollar is supported by the United States positive economic data and the ECB's decision to cut the interest rates.

The United States growth is higher than in the other most developed countries. In addition, the Fed is going to raise the rates, while the ECB and the Bank of Japan are still going to continue easing. Now more and more market participants expect the Fed interest rates rising in June 2015 and not in September as it was previously predicted.

The ECB is expected to continue to take the necessary measures to hold the low interest rates for the long term which ultimately lead to a higher inflation. Against this background, a large and a long-term the euro downtrend is predicted towards the dollar parity.

The EUR/USD grown a few as the market attitude to the euro improving result amid the industrial production data in the euro zone that have exceeded expectations. But the uptrend is limited by the European Central Bank super easy policy. The pair is consolidating.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell after the published data showed that the industrial production and the retail sales growth in China was slowed in August, adding fears over the world's largest economy slowdown.

The support level of 1.2930 temporarily stopped the downward trend. Four days price consolidation above was a signal for the corrective movement upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a «Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.3000. After breaking 1.3000 the buyers may go to 1.3070.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General overview

As a part of the referendum in Scotland expectations the pound/dollar is likely to stay under a pressure, and the downward movement is likely to be continued regardless of its result. The larger correction development can start after a local minimum is formed.

The pound’s target was the gap closing. Against the background of the high-volume the buyers were not only able to close the gap, but also came close to the strong resistance level of 1.6270.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance 1.6270-1.6290. If the pair retests it we expect the consolidation.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen remained under pressure after the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the bank was ready to ease the monetary policy or to use other measures, if the inflation rate reaches 2%.

The buyers could update the last year maximum – the level of 105.50. The movement direction depends on the support level of 107.60 strengthing.

The price is finding the support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the resistance at 107.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend longing the market after dips to the levels 106.60 and 106.30.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General overview

As we know from the Swiss central bank statement, it is ready to defend the national currency rate. The country main regulator expressed readiness in the currency interventions holding because of the franc to the euro further strengthening prevention.

The United States retail sales rose in August by 0.6%. The retail sales excluding cars sales increased by 0.3%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.

resim

resim
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09-17-2014, 05:05 AM,
#43
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The Forex market week start was passed within the narrow ranges amid the important macroeconomic releases publication lack. The Dollar index basket (USDX) has been in the horizontal flat for the 5 consecutive trading days which clearly indicates the strong market driver's absence. The EUR/USD fell slightly after the July euro zone trade balance report publication. We observed the July trade surplus decrease despite the significant euro weakening.

The GBP/USD is still not feeling confident amid the political crisis in the UK. The referendum in the Scotland on the secession from the United Kingdom will be held on Thursday 18 September and many traders are afraid to open the long pound positions in spite of the strong pound "oversold". The 10-year American and British bonds yields differential was widened in the “Treasuries”’ favor which is also the deterrent for the pound sterling strengthening.

The USD/JPY was consolidated near the 107th figure. The bears attempted to develop the downward movement amid the negative United States industrial production release, but their attempts were unsuccessful. The August industrial production volume was decreased by 0.1% which is significantly worse than the forecasted medians assumed the growth rate of 0.4%. However, the bulls returned to the market and were able to regain some of the lost positions after the quotations decline which tells us about the uptrend strength.


resim

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market participants do not hurry to make any significant moves before the Fed meeting outcome announcement. The traders expect that the Fed will announce, at least, the expected timeframe rate increase the next year.

The pair EUR/USD is being consolidated below the strong resistance level of 1.3000. The buyers fell twice from the resistance level of 1.3000.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a «Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 1.3000 testing soon. If the pair doesn’t break it we expect the fall to 1.2930 and 1.2850

resim

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound remains under pressure in the run-up to the Scotland referendum, which will take place on 18 September. We should remember that the Scotland separation will lead to the pound collapse. And also may reduce short-term rates. At the same time, if the UK separation opponents win, the economic indicators will be in the centre of attention.

The pair GBP/USD is trying to break the strong resistance level of 1.6270. The pound sterling corrective growth moved to the side consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6180. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440. The price is in the Cloud. The pair makes soft steps upwards trying to develop a correction.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.6030 if the news is negative.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen is still under some pressure in the run-up to the next FOMC meeting beginning; its results will help to determine the world's largest economy statement.

The Economic Cooperation Organization and Development has lowered the world's largest economies growth forecasts. The GDP growth will be 2.1% against the prior forecast 2.6% this year in the US.

The USD/JPY growth was stopped by the resistance level of 107.10. The correction dollar decrease is observed against the Japanese yen.

The price is finding the support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the resistance at 107.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The Cloud is directed upwards.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 106.70 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 107.80.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar/franc will be consolidated with a tendency to grow, getting support from the market participants’ positive attitude towards the dollar. The August import price index fall turned out to be stronger in Switzerland than it was expected (-1.2% y/y against the expected -1.0% y/y) that contributes to the pair growth.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9270, the next one is at 0.9210. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9370.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The cloud is still uprising.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.

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resim
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09-18-2014, 04:49 PM,
#44
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD is still between 29th and 30th figures. The Germany business climate release from the ZEW institute could not cause the strong reaction on the market - the index was better than the forecasted medians, but we observe the final value decrease for 9 consecutive months.

The similar euro area index showed the significant decrease which confirms the negative trend. The bond market also took the bears side - the10-year Treasuries American and German bonds yields differential is still expanding which is a positive factor for the dollar.

The GBP/USD was under pressure - the CPI release showed the inflation rate reduction to 1.5% y/y which is the negative factor for the monetary policy tightening. However, after the United States producer price index publication the pound was able to regain the lost ground. The PPI report came out a little worse than the forecasted medians that cheered the bulls to open the long positions.

The bears won the minimal victory on the USD/JPY in the dispute with the bulls. The BOJ head H. Kuroda confirmed that the yen weakening had not harmed the Japanese economy, however, he made it clear to the market that the exchange rates deviation from the economic fundamentals was extremely undesirable.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The dollar decline was due to a rather George Hilzenrata’s courageous statement for the Wall Street Journal about the fact that so expected the Fed's decision will not likely give any signals in rate increase and monetary policy change.

A few traders have already revised their position, knowing that the Federal Reserve uncertainty about market rates will render pressure on the dollar.

The corrective euro growth from the support level of 1.2930 did not approach the descending trend line of 1.3000. The pair consolidates above the support level of 1.2930.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a «Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.3000 false retest may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.2850.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The high pound/dollar volatility was caused by the uncertain situation surrounding the recent Scotland independence surveys results. Protests action broke out in Scotland because of the bias towards the referendum preparation.

Buyers came up to the inclined resistance line at 1.6340 that acts as the lower edge of the downtrend channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6180. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.6440.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese monetary regulator again made clear to the market that the yen devaluation was not a threat to the economy. The US and Japan stock markets growth will support the dollar/yen demand – the high-technology index Nasdaq was again the growth leader, that provides a solid foundation for the bulls in the American market.

The price is finding the support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the level of 108.00 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 108.50 will be opened.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar's decline. The Switzerland producers’ prices and the imported goods prices continued to decline in August. The Swiss central bank expects that the low inflation period will last a long time.

Now the probable Fed interest rates rise by at least 25 bp at the September FOMC meeting the next year is 77% against 73% on 29 August.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.

The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showa a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

There is a high probability that the pair will test 94th figure. Still the consumer inflation along with the fed's comments can directly change the situation.

resim

resim
Offline
09-19-2014, 04:22 AM,
#45
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The euro/dollar recovered a few its losses in yesterday's trading.The EUR/USD came under a wave of sales after the Federal Reserve meeting release. In general, the market participants have not received any surprises - still two FOMC members Plosser and Fisher vote for an earlier monetary policy tightening. All other participants insist on the maintaining low interest rates for an "extended period of time." The inflation forecast still remains moderately negative while the unemployment rate forecast turned into positive direction.

The pound/dollar closed the last week gap. The GBP/USD is in demand against the positive employment release. The unemployment fell to the level of 6.2% in the UK, in addition we saw an average wage increase in July, that points to the positive CPI.

The pair USD/JPY continued its upward movement. The Bank of Japan gives to speculators a "green light" and we observed the yen devaluation against the negative macroeconomic statistics. The US and the Japan stock market growth increases the dollar/yen demand.


resim

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair is under pressure from the investors’ positive attitude towards the American currency and the European Central Bank easy policy.

There was a rebound from the downtrend line 1.2930 against the high volume based on the EUR/USD rates. The trend rebound was followed to the support level 1.2850. Then the pair returned to the level of 1.2030.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The first target is the level 1.3000. We do not exclude the fall to 1.2850.

resim

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The published statistics showed the unemployment rate decrease by ILO to 6.2% against the expected 6.3%.

The most important was the message that two representatives of the Fed committee again offered to raise the interest rates by 0.25% at the last meeting.

The corrective pound growth was observed followed by the resistance level of 1.6340 breakthrough. The buyers came up to this level against the increased volumes backdrop.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6270. The price is finding the resistance at 1.6440.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6100.

resim

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen continued to fall against the dollar. According to the FOMC meeting results that made us clear that the economy is growing at a moderate rate and the inflation is below the target level.

The asset purchase program has been reduced to $15 billion and apparently it will be completed in October this year. The basic interest rate remained at level of 0.25%. We can observe the price increase without any signal to a correction.

The price is finding the support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 109.00.

resim

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar rose sharply against all its major counterparts after the Federal Reserve meeting. The FOMC updated the main macroeconomic indicators’ forecasts: GDP in 2014, 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% against 2.3% in June; GDP in 2015 2.6% 3.0%; 2.6% 2.9% in 2016; 2.3% 2.5% in 2017. The Fed does not expect to achieve the inflation target level at least until 2016. The USD/CHF remains in the same range.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.

resim

resim



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